Latest AEMET guidance and consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensemble models project Madrid-Barajas Airport's highest temperature on May 6 at precisely 20°C under partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds at 5 km/h, and zero precipitation probability, driving the market's 95.5% implied probability on this outcome as traders aggregate real-time observational data showing mid-afternoon peaks near 20.9°C. This aligns with early May climatology, where Madrid highs average 21–22°C but cool slightly amid current high-pressure stability and modest insolation. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing boosting late-afternoon solar heating to 21°C or minor measurement variations in official hourly records; final Barajas observations expected by evening will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on May 6?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 6?
20°C 97.4%
21°C 4.0%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$78,928 Vol.
$78,928 Vol.
May 6, 2026
20°C
97%
21°C
4%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 97.4%
21°C 4.0%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$78,928 Vol.
$78,928 Vol.
May 6, 2026
20°C
$10,153 Vol.
97%
21°C
$7,656 Vol.
4%
22°C
$7,278 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,973 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$5,701 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$3,376 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET guidance and consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensemble models project Madrid-Barajas Airport's highest temperature on May 6 at precisely 20°C under partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds at 5 km/h, and zero precipitation probability, driving the market's 95.5% implied probability on this outcome as traders aggregate real-time observational data showing mid-afternoon peaks near 20.9°C. This aligns with early May climatology, where Madrid highs average 21–22°C but cool slightly amid current high-pressure stability and modest insolation. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing boosting late-afternoon solar heating to 21°C or minor measurement variations in official hourly records; final Barajas observations expected by evening will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volume
$78,928End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET guidance and consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensemble models project Madrid-Barajas Airport's highest temperature on May 6 at precisely 20°C under partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds at 5 km/h, and zero precipitation probability, driving the market's 95.5% implied probability on this outcome as traders aggregate real-time observational data showing mid-afternoon peaks near 20.9°C. This aligns with early May climatology, where Madrid highs average 21–22°C but cool slightly amid current high-pressure stability and modest insolation. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing boosting late-afternoon solar heating to 21°C or minor measurement variations in official hourly records; final Barajas observations expected by evening will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$78,928End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET guidance and consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensemble models project Madrid-Barajas Airport's highest temperature on May 6 at precisely 20°C under partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds at 5 km/h, and zero precipitation probability, driving the market's 95.5% implied probability on this outcome as traders aggregate real-time observational data showing mid-afternoon peaks near 20.9°C. This aligns with early May climatology, where Madrid highs average 21–22°C but cool slightly amid current high-pressure stability and modest insolation. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing boosting late-afternoon solar heating to 21°C or minor measurement variations in official hourly records; final Barajas observations expected by evening will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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