Korea Meteorological Administration's latest short-term forecast projects a maximum temperature of 18°C for Seoul on May 7 under mostly clear skies and light winds, driving the market-implied 32% probability for that outcome and closely trailing 27% for 17°C. This reflects ensemble consensus from global models like ECMWF and GFS, which show a tight spread around 17–19°C amid a weakening high-pressure ridge following today's 20–21°C peak; minor divergences arise from varying predictions of boundary layer moisture and southerly flow potentially capping highs. Early May climatology averages 20–22°C, but current cooler pattern tempers expectations. With high short-range forecast skill, traders await final KMA updates at 11 a.m. and evening, as observations begin accumulating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on May 7?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 7?
18°C 33%
17°C 29%
19°C 22%
16°C 11%
NEW
$58,099 Vol.
NEW
$58,099 Vol.
May 7, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
11%
17°C
29%
18°C
33%
19°C
22%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
3%
18°C 33%
17°C 29%
19°C 22%
16°C 11%
NEW
$58,099 Vol.
NEW
$58,099 Vol.
May 7, 2026
11°C or below
$1,817 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$3,276 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$5,825 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$8,470 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$10,565 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$4,431 Vol.
11%
17°C
$2,955 Vol.
29%
18°C
$2,578 Vol.
33%
19°C
$2,774 Vol.
22%
20°C
$4,475 Vol.
8%
21°C or higher
$11,836 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration's latest short-term forecast projects a maximum temperature of 18°C for Seoul on May 7 under mostly clear skies and light winds, driving the market-implied 32% probability for that outcome and closely trailing 27% for 17°C. This reflects ensemble consensus from global models like ECMWF and GFS, which show a tight spread around 17–19°C amid a weakening high-pressure ridge following today's 20–21°C peak; minor divergences arise from varying predictions of boundary layer moisture and southerly flow potentially capping highs. Early May climatology averages 20–22°C, but current cooler pattern tempers expectations. With high short-range forecast skill, traders await final KMA updates at 11 a.m. and evening, as observations begin accumulating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$58,099End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration's latest short-term forecast projects a maximum temperature of 18°C for Seoul on May 7 under mostly clear skies and light winds, driving the market-implied 32% probability for that outcome and closely trailing 27% for 17°C. This reflects ensemble consensus from global models like ECMWF and GFS, which show a tight spread around 17–19°C amid a weakening high-pressure ridge following today's 20–21°C peak; minor divergences arise from varying predictions of boundary layer moisture and southerly flow potentially capping highs. Early May climatology averages 20–22°C, but current cooler pattern tempers expectations. With high short-range forecast skill, traders await final KMA updates at 11 a.m. and evening, as observations begin accumulating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$58,099End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Korea Meteorological Administration's latest short-term forecast projects a maximum temperature of 18°C for Seoul on May 7 under mostly clear skies and light winds, driving the market-implied 32% probability for that outcome and closely trailing 27% for 17°C. This reflects ensemble consensus from global models like ECMWF and GFS, which show a tight spread around 17–19°C amid a weakening high-pressure ridge following today's 20–21°C peak; minor divergences arise from varying predictions of boundary layer moisture and southerly flow potentially capping highs. Early May climatology averages 20–22°C, but current cooler pattern tempers expectations. With high short-range forecast skill, traders await final KMA updates at 11 a.m. and evening, as observations begin accumulating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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