Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the inherent unpredictability of global seismicity, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered around 4–9 M5.5+ earthquakes for May 4–10, aligning with historical USGS averages of roughly 12 events per week from long-term catalogs showing about 650 annually. Recent April 2026 activity remained moderate, featuring isolated M5.5–6.4 quakes in typical hotspots like the Fiji region, Kermadec Islands, Indonesia, and Mongolia, without elevated swarms or aftershock sequences to skew counts higher or lower. Differentiating factors include potential lingering aftershocks from mid-April events at the Juan de Fuca Ridge and steady tectonic strain along the Ring of Fire, versus quieter periods possible amid Poisson-distributed variance; USGS real-time catalog updates will refine probabilities through resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 4 - May 10?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 4 - May 10?
>9 42%
7 42%
8 42%
9 42%
NEW
NEW
May 10, 2026
≤3
41%
4
41%
5
41%
6
41%
7
42%
8
42%
9
42%
>9
42%
>9 42%
7 42%
8 42%
9 42%
NEW
NEW
May 10, 2026
≤3
$1 Vol.
41%
4
$0 Vol.
41%
5
$0 Vol.
41%
6
$0 Vol.
41%
7
$0 Vol.
42%
8
$0 Vol.
42%
9
$0 Vol.
42%
>9
$0 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the inherent unpredictability of global seismicity, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered around 4–9 M5.5+ earthquakes for May 4–10, aligning with historical USGS averages of roughly 12 events per week from long-term catalogs showing about 650 annually. Recent April 2026 activity remained moderate, featuring isolated M5.5–6.4 quakes in typical hotspots like the Fiji region, Kermadec Islands, Indonesia, and Mongolia, without elevated swarms or aftershock sequences to skew counts higher or lower. Differentiating factors include potential lingering aftershocks from mid-April events at the Juan de Fuca Ridge and steady tectonic strain along the Ring of Fire, versus quieter periods possible amid Poisson-distributed variance; USGS real-time catalog updates will refine probabilities through resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Volume
$1End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the inherent unpredictability of global seismicity, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered around 4–9 M5.5+ earthquakes for May 4–10, aligning with historical USGS averages of roughly 12 events per week from long-term catalogs showing about 650 annually. Recent April 2026 activity remained moderate, featuring isolated M5.5–6.4 quakes in typical hotspots like the Fiji region, Kermadec Islands, Indonesia, and Mongolia, without elevated swarms or aftershock sequences to skew counts higher or lower. Differentiating factors include potential lingering aftershocks from mid-April events at the Juan de Fuca Ridge and steady tectonic strain along the Ring of Fire, versus quieter periods possible amid Poisson-distributed variance; USGS real-time catalog updates will refine probabilities through resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$1End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the inherent unpredictability of global seismicity, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered around 4–9 M5.5+ earthquakes for May 4–10, aligning with historical USGS averages of roughly 12 events per week from long-term catalogs showing about 650 annually. Recent April 2026 activity remained moderate, featuring isolated M5.5–6.4 quakes in typical hotspots like the Fiji region, Kermadec Islands, Indonesia, and Mongolia, without elevated swarms or aftershock sequences to skew counts higher or lower. Differentiating factors include potential lingering aftershocks from mid-April events at the Juan de Fuca Ridge and steady tectonic strain along the Ring of Fire, versus quieter periods possible amid Poisson-distributed variance; USGS real-time catalog updates will refine probabilities through resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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