Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 8 at Bao'an International Airport, with implied probabilities clustered around 26–28°C due to expected showers and overcast skies suppressing peak heating. Recent updates from ensemble models like those powering Weather.com (28°C high, 75% precip) and timeanddate.com (28°C, 63% rain chance) show convergence after May 6–7 forecasts trended warmer at 27–30°C amid cloudy conditions, but incoming thundery showers per BBC (29°C possible) introduce variability from cloud cover, high humidity (70–80%), and light winds limiting solar insolation. Seasonal May averages hover near 29.5°C, yet rainy patterns typical of early monsoon transition cap extremes; watch overnight GFS/ECMWF runs and May 7 observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on May 8?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 8?
28°C 35%
27°C 21%
29°C 14%
30°C 12%
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
3%
26°C
7%
27°C
21%
28°C
35%
29°C
14%
30°C
12%
31°C or higher
3%
28°C 35%
27°C 21%
29°C 14%
30°C 12%
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
3%
26°C
7%
27°C
21%
28°C
35%
29°C
14%
30°C
12%
31°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 6, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 8 at Bao'an International Airport, with implied probabilities clustered around 26–28°C due to expected showers and overcast skies suppressing peak heating. Recent updates from ensemble models like those powering Weather.com (28°C high, 75% precip) and timeanddate.com (28°C, 63% rain chance) show convergence after May 6–7 forecasts trended warmer at 27–30°C amid cloudy conditions, but incoming thundery showers per BBC (29°C possible) introduce variability from cloud cover, high humidity (70–80%), and light winds limiting solar insolation. Seasonal May averages hover near 29.5°C, yet rainy patterns typical of early monsoon transition cap extremes; watch overnight GFS/ECMWF runs and May 7 observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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