Official METAR observations from Esenboğa International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirm Ankara's highest temperature on May 6, 2026, peaked at 15°C around 17:20 local time under broken clouds at 4,000 feet and light southerly winds of 10 knots. This aligns with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) data showing midday readings near 14°C amid lingering cool northerly flow from an early-week Arctic airmass that suppressed highs to 8–10°C on May 3–4. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 15°C reflects this verified peak, well below May climatological norms of 20–22°C. Realistic challenges include a rare late-afternoon convective clearing pushing 16°C before sunset, though model consensus (GFS, ECMWF analogs) forecasts stabilization with increasing cloudiness.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on May 6?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 6?
15°C 100.0%
16°C <1%
17°C or higher <1%
$72,913 Vol.
$72,913 Vol.
15°C
100%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
15°C 100.0%
16°C <1%
17°C or higher <1%
$72,913 Vol.
$72,913 Vol.
15°C
100%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 12:23 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official METAR observations from Esenboğa International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirm Ankara's highest temperature on May 6, 2026, peaked at 15°C around 17:20 local time under broken clouds at 4,000 feet and light southerly winds of 10 knots. This aligns with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) data showing midday readings near 14°C amid lingering cool northerly flow from an early-week Arctic airmass that suppressed highs to 8–10°C on May 3–4. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 15°C reflects this verified peak, well below May climatological norms of 20–22°C. Realistic challenges include a rare late-afternoon convective clearing pushing 16°C before sunset, though model consensus (GFS, ECMWF analogs) forecasts stabilization with increasing cloudiness.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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