Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 33% probability for a 32°C high in Lagos on May 8, aligned with NiMet's seasonal climate prediction of an extended rainy season and above-normal rainfall starting early in 2026, which has introduced cloudy conditions and isolated thunderstorms over the past week. Current short-term forecasts from international models and sites like AccuWeather project daily highs of 29–34°C amid the transition from dry harmattan winds to monsoon influences, with historical May averages around 31°C and variability driven by sea breeze strength, urban heat island effects, and precipitation timing. Key variables tipping outcomes include morning cloud cover suppressing peaks (favoring 30–31°C), sunny breaks allowing 33–34°C, or heavy showers cooling to 29°C or below; NiMet daily bulletins through May 8 will refine guidance as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lagos on May 8?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 8?
33°C 30%
32°C 29%
34°C 12%
31°C 12%
NEW
NEW
May 8, 2026
27°C or below
2%
28°C
3%
29°C
4%
30°C
5%
31°C
12%
32°C
29%
33°C
30%
34°C
12%
35°C
6%
36°C
3%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 30%
32°C 29%
34°C 12%
31°C 12%
NEW
NEW
May 8, 2026
27°C or below
$135 Vol.
2%
28°C
$5 Vol.
3%
29°C
$14 Vol.
4%
30°C
$0 Vol.
5%
31°C
$7 Vol.
12%
32°C
$14 Vol.
29%
33°C
$5 Vol.
30%
34°C
$0 Vol.
12%
35°C
$2 Vol.
6%
36°C
$570 Vol.
3%
37°C or higher
$256 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 33% probability for a 32°C high in Lagos on May 8, aligned with NiMet's seasonal climate prediction of an extended rainy season and above-normal rainfall starting early in 2026, which has introduced cloudy conditions and isolated thunderstorms over the past week. Current short-term forecasts from international models and sites like AccuWeather project daily highs of 29–34°C amid the transition from dry harmattan winds to monsoon influences, with historical May averages around 31°C and variability driven by sea breeze strength, urban heat island effects, and precipitation timing. Key variables tipping outcomes include morning cloud cover suppressing peaks (favoring 30–31°C), sunny breaks allowing 33–34°C, or heavy showers cooling to 29°C or below; NiMet daily bulletins through May 8 will refine guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 6, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
Volume
$1,010End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 6, 2026, 12:16 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 33% probability for a 32°C high in Lagos on May 8, aligned with NiMet's seasonal climate prediction of an extended rainy season and above-normal rainfall starting early in 2026, which has introduced cloudy conditions and isolated thunderstorms over the past week. Current short-term forecasts from international models and sites like AccuWeather project daily highs of 29–34°C amid the transition from dry harmattan winds to monsoon influences, with historical May averages around 31°C and variability driven by sea breeze strength, urban heat island effects, and precipitation timing. Key variables tipping outcomes include morning cloud cover suppressing peaks (favoring 30–31°C), sunny breaks allowing 33–34°C, or heavy showers cooling to 29°C or below; NiMet daily bulletins through May 8 will refine guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,010End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 6, 2026, 12:16 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 33% probability for a 32°C high in Lagos on May 8, aligned with NiMet's seasonal climate prediction of an extended rainy season and above-normal rainfall starting early in 2026, which has introduced cloudy conditions and isolated thunderstorms over the past week. Current short-term forecasts from international models and sites like AccuWeather project daily highs of 29–34°C amid the transition from dry harmattan winds to monsoon influences, with historical May averages around 31°C and variability driven by sea breeze strength, urban heat island effects, and precipitation timing. Key variables tipping outcomes include morning cloud cover suppressing peaks (favoring 30–31°C), sunny breaks allowing 33–34°C, or heavy showers cooling to 29°C or below; NiMet daily bulletins through May 8 will refine guidance as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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