Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.5% implied probability to a 22°C high temperature in Tel Aviv today, driven by the Israel Meteorological Service's (IMS) latest guidance and consensus from global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which project unseasonably cool conditions under a persistent cool maritime air mass from the Mediterranean. Westerly winds and partly cloudy skies are suppressing daytime heating, following yesterday's 21°C peak amid similar synoptic patterns—well below May's climatological average of 25–26°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing greater solar insolation or a wind shift introducing warmer continental air, though model ensembles show low dispersion around 22°C; IMS station observations will resolve the market by day's end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 6?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 6?
22°C 99.6%
23°C <1%
25°C <1%
24°C <1%
$57,593 Vol.
$57,593 Vol.
May 6, 2026
22°C
100%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
22°C 99.6%
23°C <1%
25°C <1%
24°C <1%
$57,593 Vol.
$57,593 Vol.
May 6, 2026
22°C
$7,105 Vol.
100%
23°C
$4,861 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$2,927 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$2,188 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$2,222 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.5% implied probability to a 22°C high temperature in Tel Aviv today, driven by the Israel Meteorological Service's (IMS) latest guidance and consensus from global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which project unseasonably cool conditions under a persistent cool maritime air mass from the Mediterranean. Westerly winds and partly cloudy skies are suppressing daytime heating, following yesterday's 21°C peak amid similar synoptic patterns—well below May's climatological average of 25–26°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing greater solar insolation or a wind shift introducing warmer continental air, though model ensembles show low dispersion around 22°C; IMS station observations will resolve the market by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
Volume
$57,593End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.5% implied probability to a 22°C high temperature in Tel Aviv today, driven by the Israel Meteorological Service's (IMS) latest guidance and consensus from global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which project unseasonably cool conditions under a persistent cool maritime air mass from the Mediterranean. Westerly winds and partly cloudy skies are suppressing daytime heating, following yesterday's 21°C peak amid similar synoptic patterns—well below May's climatological average of 25–26°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing greater solar insolation or a wind shift introducing warmer continental air, though model ensembles show low dispersion around 22°C; IMS station observations will resolve the market by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$57,593End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.5% implied probability to a 22°C high temperature in Tel Aviv today, driven by the Israel Meteorological Service's (IMS) latest guidance and consensus from global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which project unseasonably cool conditions under a persistent cool maritime air mass from the Mediterranean. Westerly winds and partly cloudy skies are suppressing daytime heating, following yesterday's 21°C peak amid similar synoptic patterns—well below May's climatological average of 25–26°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing greater solar insolation or a wind shift introducing warmer continental air, though model ensembles show low dispersion around 22°C; IMS station observations will resolve the market by day's end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions