The 87% market-implied probability for no Vesuvius eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 1 or higher in 2026 reflects trader consensus driven by sustained quiescence, with INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano reporting no anomalous seismic activity, ground deformation, or gas emissions through April 2026. Minor earthquakes (magnitudes up to 1.8) remain at background levels typical of the volcano's low-energy regime over the past 50 years, as detailed in recent analyses, while the Italian Civil Protection maintains a green alert level indicating ordinary conditions. Dormant since the 1944 VEI 3 eruption, Vesuvius shows no precursory unrest patterns seen before historical events; continuous INGV monitoring bulletins will provide key updates amid inherent volcanic uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.The 87% market-implied probability for no Vesuvius eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 1 or higher in 2026 reflects trader consensus driven by sustained quiescence, with INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano reporting no anomalous seismic activity, ground deformation, or gas emissions through April 2026. Minor earthquakes (magnitudes up to 1.8) remain at background levels typical of the volcano's low-energy regime over the past 50 years, as detailed in recent analyses, while the Italian Civil Protection maintains a green alert level indicating ordinary conditions. Dormant since the 1944 VEI 3 eruption, Vesuvius shows no precursory unrest patterns seen before historical events; continuous INGV monitoring bulletins will provide key updates amid inherent volcanic uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mercado abierto: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volumen
$360Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.The 87% market-implied probability for no Vesuvius eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 1 or higher in 2026 reflects trader consensus driven by sustained quiescence, with INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano reporting no anomalous seismic activity, ground deformation, or gas emissions through April 2026. Minor earthquakes (magnitudes up to 1.8) remain at background levels typical of the volcano's low-energy regime over the past 50 years, as detailed in recent analyses, while the Italian Civil Protection maintains a green alert level indicating ordinary conditions. Dormant since the 1944 VEI 3 eruption, Vesuvius shows no precursory unrest patterns seen before historical events; continuous INGV monitoring bulletins will provide key updates amid inherent volcanic uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Volumen
$360Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 87% market-implied probability for no Vesuvius eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 1 or higher in 2026 reflects trader consensus driven by sustained quiescence, with INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano reporting no anomalous seismic activity, ground deformation, or gas emissions through April 2026. Minor earthquakes (magnitudes up to 1.8) remain at background levels typical of the volcano's low-energy regime over the past 50 years, as detailed in recent analyses, while the Italian Civil Protection maintains a green alert level indicating ordinary conditions. Dormant since the 1944 VEI 3 eruption, Vesuvius shows no precursory unrest patterns seen before historical events; continuous INGV monitoring bulletins will provide key updates amid inherent volcanic uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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