The record-low Arctic winter sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15—tying 2025 for the lowest in the satellite record—has preconditioned a thin, vulnerable ice pack entering the 2026 melt season, driving trader consensus toward a summer minimum near or below 4 million square kilometers, per NSIDC and NOAA data. Current mid-spring extents rank second-lowest on record, amplifying risks of rapid melt, while emerging El Niño conditions (80% ENSO-neutral through June, then likely shifting) could enhance warm air advection and ice loss via altered atmospheric patterns like low pressure over the North Pacific. However, inherent uncertainties in summer weather—cloud cover, winds, and regional steering—yield closely matched market-implied odds between <4 million sq km (44%) and 4.0-4.2 million sq km (35%), with SIPN outlooks and daily NSIDC updates expected to refine probabilities through July. Historical minima since 2012 have stabilized around 4.2-4.7 million sq km despite long-term decline, underscoring the role of short-term variability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
<4 millones km² 44%
4,0-4,2 millones km² 34.7%
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 7.4%
4,6-4,8 millones de km² 6%
$33,797 Vol.
$33,797 Vol.
1 oct 2026
<4 millones km²
44%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
35%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
5%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
7%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
6%
4.8-5 millones de km²
1%
5+ millones de km²
2%
<4 millones km² 44%
4,0-4,2 millones km² 34.7%
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 7.4%
4,6-4,8 millones de km² 6%
$33,797 Vol.
$33,797 Vol.
1 oct 2026
<4 millones km²
$24,487 Vol.
44%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
$3,073 Vol.
35%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
$1,025 Vol.
5%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
$1,088 Vol.
7%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
$2,220 Vol.
6%
4.8-5 millones de km²
$901 Vol.
1%
5+ millones de km²
$1,003 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The record-low Arctic winter sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15—tying 2025 for the lowest in the satellite record—has preconditioned a thin, vulnerable ice pack entering the 2026 melt season, driving trader consensus toward a summer minimum near or below 4 million square kilometers, per NSIDC and NOAA data. Current mid-spring extents rank second-lowest on record, amplifying risks of rapid melt, while emerging El Niño conditions (80% ENSO-neutral through June, then likely shifting) could enhance warm air advection and ice loss via altered atmospheric patterns like low pressure over the North Pacific. However, inherent uncertainties in summer weather—cloud cover, winds, and regional steering—yield closely matched market-implied odds between <4 million sq km (44%) and 4.0-4.2 million sq km (35%), with SIPN outlooks and daily NSIDC updates expected to refine probabilities through July. Historical minima since 2012 have stabilized around 4.2-4.7 million sq km despite long-term decline, underscoring the role of short-term variability.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$33,797Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The record-low Arctic winter sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15—tying 2025 for the lowest in the satellite record—has preconditioned a thin, vulnerable ice pack entering the 2026 melt season, driving trader consensus toward a summer minimum near or below 4 million square kilometers, per NSIDC and NOAA data. Current mid-spring extents rank second-lowest on record, amplifying risks of rapid melt, while emerging El Niño conditions (80% ENSO-neutral through June, then likely shifting) could enhance warm air advection and ice loss via altered atmospheric patterns like low pressure over the North Pacific. However, inherent uncertainties in summer weather—cloud cover, winds, and regional steering—yield closely matched market-implied odds between <4 million sq km (44%) and 4.0-4.2 million sq km (35%), with SIPN outlooks and daily NSIDC updates expected to refine probabilities through July. Historical minima since 2012 have stabilized around 4.2-4.7 million sq km despite long-term decline, underscoring the role of short-term variability.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$33,797Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The record-low Arctic winter sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15—tying 2025 for the lowest in the satellite record—has preconditioned a thin, vulnerable ice pack entering the 2026 melt season, driving trader consensus toward a summer minimum near or below 4 million square kilometers, per NSIDC and NOAA data. Current mid-spring extents rank second-lowest on record, amplifying risks of rapid melt, while emerging El Niño conditions (80% ENSO-neutral through June, then likely shifting) could enhance warm air advection and ice loss via altered atmospheric patterns like low pressure over the North Pacific. However, inherent uncertainties in summer weather—cloud cover, winds, and regional steering—yield closely matched market-implied odds between <4 million sq km (44%) and 4.0-4.2 million sq km (35%), with SIPN outlooks and daily NSIDC updates expected to refine probabilities through July. Historical minima since 2012 have stabilized around 4.2-4.7 million sq km despite long-term decline, underscoring the role of short-term variability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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