Latest Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range forecasts indicate Seoul's overnight low on May 2 clustering around 10-12°C under mostly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and high humidity near 95%, explaining the tight race among these trader-favored outcomes at 27%, 20%, and 11% implied probabilities. Mostly cloudy conditions limit radiational cooling—where clear skies allow ground heat to escape efficiently—but incomplete cloud cover or timing could nudge the minimum toward 10°C, while persistent overcast favors 12°C. Urban heat island effects in Seoul often boost lows 1-2°C above rural benchmarks, adding uncertainty to model ensembles. Historical early-May minima average 11-13°C; watch KMA's next 3-6 hour update for refined guidance.