Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Warsaw highs of 24–26°C on May 2, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicating 24–26°C peaks under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. This system promotes subsidence warming, clear skies, and southerly air advection following late-April's cool spell, when daytime highs lingered around 8–12°C; May 1 observations already show warming to 17–20°C. Official IMGW guidance aligns with 19–23°C maxima amid sunny conditions, though model spreads reflect minor uncertainty in peak timing and exact advection strength. Final 12z model runs today and airport observations tomorrow could refine probabilities before resolution based on verified maximums from monitoring stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 2?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 2?
25°C 44%
24°C 29%
26°C 21%
23°C 4.0%
NUEVO
$20,039 Vol.
NUEVO
$20,039 Vol.
2 may 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
4%
24°C
29%
25°C
44%
26°C
21%
27°C
2%
28°C or higher
1%
25°C 44%
24°C 29%
26°C 21%
23°C 4.0%
NUEVO
$20,039 Vol.
NUEVO
$20,039 Vol.
2 may 2026
18°C or below
$4,282 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,165 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,041 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,217 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,924 Vol.
1%
23°C
$1,802 Vol.
4%
24°C
$1,819 Vol.
29%
25°C
$1,326 Vol.
44%
26°C
$1,225 Vol.
21%
27°C
$1,219 Vol.
2%
28°C or higher
$1,021 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Warsaw highs of 24–26°C on May 2, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicating 24–26°C peaks under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. This system promotes subsidence warming, clear skies, and southerly air advection following late-April's cool spell, when daytime highs lingered around 8–12°C; May 1 observations already show warming to 17–20°C. Official IMGW guidance aligns with 19–23°C maxima amid sunny conditions, though model spreads reflect minor uncertainty in peak timing and exact advection strength. Final 12z model runs today and airport observations tomorrow could refine probabilities before resolution based on verified maximums from monitoring stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$20,039Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Warsaw highs of 24–26°C on May 2, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicating 24–26°C peaks under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. This system promotes subsidence warming, clear skies, and southerly air advection following late-April's cool spell, when daytime highs lingered around 8–12°C; May 1 observations already show warming to 17–20°C. Official IMGW guidance aligns with 19–23°C maxima amid sunny conditions, though model spreads reflect minor uncertainty in peak timing and exact advection strength. Final 12z model runs today and airport observations tomorrow could refine probabilities before resolution based on verified maximums from monitoring stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$20,039Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Warsaw highs of 24–26°C on May 2, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicating 24–26°C peaks under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. This system promotes subsidence warming, clear skies, and southerly air advection following late-April's cool spell, when daytime highs lingered around 8–12°C; May 1 observations already show warming to 17–20°C. Official IMGW guidance aligns with 19–23°C maxima amid sunny conditions, though model spreads reflect minor uncertainty in peak timing and exact advection strength. Final 12z model runs today and airport observations tomorrow could refine probabilities before resolution based on verified maximums from monitoring stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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