Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty between 27°C (35.5%) and 28°C (37.5%) as the highest temperature in São Paulo on May 1, driven by the latest INMET forecasts projecting a maximum near 29°C under mostly cloudy skies with minimums around 18°C, tempered by ensemble model spreads from GFS and ECMWF showing 26-29°C ranges. Recent above-average autumn warmth—outono temperatures exceeding climatological norms of 23-24°C—has carried over from April highs near 30°C on the coast, but an approaching cold front from the south risks earlier cloudiness and showers, potentially capping peaks via increased humidity and reduced insolation. Urban heat island effects in São Paulo may boost readings by 1-2°C at official stations like Guarulhos, with resolution hinging on hourly observations; fresh model updates expected today could sharpen odds before tomorrow's close.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 1?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 1?
28°C 38%
27°C 37%
26°C 16.5%
29°C 7%
NUEVO
$10,231 Vol.
NUEVO
$10,231 Vol.
1 may 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
17%
27°C
37%
28°C
38%
29°C
7%
30°C
2%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 38%
27°C 37%
26°C 16.5%
29°C 7%
NUEVO
$10,231 Vol.
NUEVO
$10,231 Vol.
1 may 2026
23°C or below
$610 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,613 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,020 Vol.
1%
26°C
$1,241 Vol.
17%
27°C
$1,128 Vol.
37%
28°C
$1,371 Vol.
38%
29°C
$540 Vol.
7%
30°C
$1,061 Vol.
2%
31°C
$941 Vol.
1%
32°C
$472 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$330 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty between 27°C (35.5%) and 28°C (37.5%) as the highest temperature in São Paulo on May 1, driven by the latest INMET forecasts projecting a maximum near 29°C under mostly cloudy skies with minimums around 18°C, tempered by ensemble model spreads from GFS and ECMWF showing 26-29°C ranges. Recent above-average autumn warmth—outono temperatures exceeding climatological norms of 23-24°C—has carried over from April highs near 30°C on the coast, but an approaching cold front from the south risks earlier cloudiness and showers, potentially capping peaks via increased humidity and reduced insolation. Urban heat island effects in São Paulo may boost readings by 1-2°C at official stations like Guarulhos, with resolution hinging on hourly observations; fresh model updates expected today could sharpen odds before tomorrow's close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$10,231Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty between 27°C (35.5%) and 28°C (37.5%) as the highest temperature in São Paulo on May 1, driven by the latest INMET forecasts projecting a maximum near 29°C under mostly cloudy skies with minimums around 18°C, tempered by ensemble model spreads from GFS and ECMWF showing 26-29°C ranges. Recent above-average autumn warmth—outono temperatures exceeding climatological norms of 23-24°C—has carried over from April highs near 30°C on the coast, but an approaching cold front from the south risks earlier cloudiness and showers, potentially capping peaks via increased humidity and reduced insolation. Urban heat island effects in São Paulo may boost readings by 1-2°C at official stations like Guarulhos, with resolution hinging on hourly observations; fresh model updates expected today could sharpen odds before tomorrow's close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$10,231Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty between 27°C (35.5%) and 28°C (37.5%) as the highest temperature in São Paulo on May 1, driven by the latest INMET forecasts projecting a maximum near 29°C under mostly cloudy skies with minimums around 18°C, tempered by ensemble model spreads from GFS and ECMWF showing 26-29°C ranges. Recent above-average autumn warmth—outono temperatures exceeding climatological norms of 23-24°C—has carried over from April highs near 30°C on the coast, but an approaching cold front from the south risks earlier cloudiness and showers, potentially capping peaks via increased humidity and reduced insolation. Urban heat island effects in São Paulo may boost readings by 1-2°C at official stations like Guarulhos, with resolution hinging on hourly observations; fresh model updates expected today could sharpen odds before tomorrow's close.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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