Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 71°F or below in Houston at 73.1% implied probability, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast pinning the May 1 maximum near 70°F amid lingering post-frontal cool air from a recent April cold front. Cloudy skies, northeast winds around 10-15 mph, and 20-30% shower chances are suppressing daytime heating by reducing solar insolation, with GFS and ECMWF models showing broad agreement on highs in the upper 60s to low 70s—well below the May climatological average of 83°F. The 19.7% odds on 72-73°F reflect minor hedging for partial clearing, while negligible probabilities for 74°F+ stem from absent ridge-building warmth; watch evening model updates for potential late tweaks before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Houston on May 1?
Highest temperature in Houston on May 1?
71°F or below 71.4%
72-73°F 20.0%
74-75°F 4.3%
76-77°F <1%
NUEVO
$19,671 Vol.
NUEVO
$19,671 Vol.
1 may 2026
71°F or below
71%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
71°F or below 71.4%
72-73°F 20.0%
74-75°F 4.3%
76-77°F <1%
NUEVO
$19,671 Vol.
NUEVO
$19,671 Vol.
1 may 2026
71°F or below
$2,956 Vol.
71%
72-73°F
$1,128 Vol.
20%
74-75°F
$1,324 Vol.
4%
76-77°F
$4,134 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$3,418 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$1,669 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$1,040 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$635 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$2,409 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$540 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$1,867 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 71°F or below in Houston at 73.1% implied probability, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast pinning the May 1 maximum near 70°F amid lingering post-frontal cool air from a recent April cold front. Cloudy skies, northeast winds around 10-15 mph, and 20-30% shower chances are suppressing daytime heating by reducing solar insolation, with GFS and ECMWF models showing broad agreement on highs in the upper 60s to low 70s—well below the May climatological average of 83°F. The 19.7% odds on 72-73°F reflect minor hedging for partial clearing, while negligible probabilities for 74°F+ stem from absent ridge-building warmth; watch evening model updates for potential late tweaks before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
Volumen
$19,671Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:23 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 71°F or below in Houston at 73.1% implied probability, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast pinning the May 1 maximum near 70°F amid lingering post-frontal cool air from a recent April cold front. Cloudy skies, northeast winds around 10-15 mph, and 20-30% shower chances are suppressing daytime heating by reducing solar insolation, with GFS and ECMWF models showing broad agreement on highs in the upper 60s to low 70s—well below the May climatological average of 83°F. The 19.7% odds on 72-73°F reflect minor hedging for partial clearing, while negligible probabilities for 74°F+ stem from absent ridge-building warmth; watch evening model updates for potential late tweaks before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$19,671Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:23 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 71°F or below in Houston at 73.1% implied probability, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast pinning the May 1 maximum near 70°F amid lingering post-frontal cool air from a recent April cold front. Cloudy skies, northeast winds around 10-15 mph, and 20-30% shower chances are suppressing daytime heating by reducing solar insolation, with GFS and ECMWF models showing broad agreement on highs in the upper 60s to low 70s—well below the May climatological average of 83°F. The 19.7% odds on 72-73°F reflect minor hedging for partial clearing, while negligible probabilities for 74°F+ stem from absent ridge-building warmth; watch evening model updates for potential late tweaks before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes