Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 51°F or below in Chicago on May 1 (92% implied probability), aligned with the National Weather Service's latest forecast guidance projecting a maximum near 46°F—well below the 65°F climatological normal. This reflects a potent cold Canadian air mass in place after a recent frontal passage, reinforced by persistent northeast winds around 10 mph and extensive cloud cover that curbs solar insolation and daytime warming. NOAA ensemble models show tight agreement with minimal spread, drawing from current observations of overnight lows near 40°F. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing or lighter winds allowing a push to the low 50s, though 12z GFS and NAM updates today are key to watch before resolution at Chicago O'Hare.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Chicago el 1 de mayo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Chicago el 1 de mayo?
51°F o menos 92%
52-53°F 6%
54-55°F 1.7%
56-57°F 1.0%
NUEVO
$24,791 Vol.
NUEVO
$24,791 Vol.
1 may 2026
51°F o menos
92%
52-53°F
6%
54-55°F
2%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70°F o más
<1%
51°F o menos 92%
52-53°F 6%
54-55°F 1.7%
56-57°F 1.0%
NUEVO
$24,791 Vol.
NUEVO
$24,791 Vol.
1 may 2026
51°F o menos
$4,816 Vol.
92%
52-53°F
$2,423 Vol.
6%
54-55°F
$2,066 Vol.
2%
56-57°F
$1,893 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$3,411 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$2,563 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$1,845 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$2,034 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$1,246 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$1,327 Vol.
<1%
70°F o más
$1,201 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 51°F or below in Chicago on May 1 (92% implied probability), aligned with the National Weather Service's latest forecast guidance projecting a maximum near 46°F—well below the 65°F climatological normal. This reflects a potent cold Canadian air mass in place after a recent frontal passage, reinforced by persistent northeast winds around 10 mph and extensive cloud cover that curbs solar insolation and daytime warming. NOAA ensemble models show tight agreement with minimal spread, drawing from current observations of overnight lows near 40°F. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing or lighter winds allowing a push to the low 50s, though 12z GFS and NAM updates today are key to watch before resolution at Chicago O'Hare.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volumen
$24,791Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 51°F or below in Chicago on May 1 (92% implied probability), aligned with the National Weather Service's latest forecast guidance projecting a maximum near 46°F—well below the 65°F climatological normal. This reflects a potent cold Canadian air mass in place after a recent frontal passage, reinforced by persistent northeast winds around 10 mph and extensive cloud cover that curbs solar insolation and daytime warming. NOAA ensemble models show tight agreement with minimal spread, drawing from current observations of overnight lows near 40°F. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing or lighter winds allowing a push to the low 50s, though 12z GFS and NAM updates today are key to watch before resolution at Chicago O'Hare.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$24,791Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 51°F or below in Chicago on May 1 (92% implied probability), aligned with the National Weather Service's latest forecast guidance projecting a maximum near 46°F—well below the 65°F climatological normal. This reflects a potent cold Canadian air mass in place after a recent frontal passage, reinforced by persistent northeast winds around 10 mph and extensive cloud cover that curbs solar insolation and daytime warming. NOAA ensemble models show tight agreement with minimal spread, drawing from current observations of overnight lows near 40°F. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing or lighter winds allowing a push to the low 50s, though 12z GFS and NAM updates today are key to watch before resolution at Chicago O'Hare.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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