Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ensemble outputs from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), averaging highs near 22°C for Beijing on May 2 amid a cool northerly airflow and expected light rain or cloudy conditions that limit solar insolation and peak heating. The China Meteorological Administration's guidance aligns closely, forecasting a maximum around 20-21°C with gentle north winds following a frontal passage, below early May climatological norms of 24-26°C. Tight odds between 22°C (30%) and 23°C (24.5%) stem from model divergences on cloud cover persistence and exact timing of any clearing, with lower chances for 21°C or below (13%) hinging on heavier precipitation. Updated afternoon forecasts from official agencies today could refine these market-implied probabilities before resolution based on verified observations at Beijing's primary station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on May 2?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 2?
23°C 33%
22°C 31%
24°C 19%
21°C or below 12%
NUEVO
$11,626 Vol.
NUEVO
$11,626 Vol.
2 may 2026
21°C or below
12%
22°C
31%
23°C
33%
24°C
19%
25°C
6%
26°C
3%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
23°C 33%
22°C 31%
24°C 19%
21°C or below 12%
NUEVO
$11,626 Vol.
NUEVO
$11,626 Vol.
2 may 2026
21°C or below
$1,939 Vol.
12%
22°C
$950 Vol.
31%
23°C
$552 Vol.
33%
24°C
$491 Vol.
19%
25°C
$878 Vol.
6%
26°C
$1,223 Vol.
3%
27°C
$1,932 Vol.
1%
28°C
$1,390 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,117 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$885 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$446 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ensemble outputs from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), averaging highs near 22°C for Beijing on May 2 amid a cool northerly airflow and expected light rain or cloudy conditions that limit solar insolation and peak heating. The China Meteorological Administration's guidance aligns closely, forecasting a maximum around 20-21°C with gentle north winds following a frontal passage, below early May climatological norms of 24-26°C. Tight odds between 22°C (30%) and 23°C (24.5%) stem from model divergences on cloud cover persistence and exact timing of any clearing, with lower chances for 21°C or below (13%) hinging on heavier precipitation. Updated afternoon forecasts from official agencies today could refine these market-implied probabilities before resolution based on verified observations at Beijing's primary station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:20 AM ET
Volumen
$11,626Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:20 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ensemble outputs from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), averaging highs near 22°C for Beijing on May 2 amid a cool northerly airflow and expected light rain or cloudy conditions that limit solar insolation and peak heating. The China Meteorological Administration's guidance aligns closely, forecasting a maximum around 20-21°C with gentle north winds following a frontal passage, below early May climatological norms of 24-26°C. Tight odds between 22°C (30%) and 23°C (24.5%) stem from model divergences on cloud cover persistence and exact timing of any clearing, with lower chances for 21°C or below (13%) hinging on heavier precipitation. Updated afternoon forecasts from official agencies today could refine these market-implied probabilities before resolution based on verified observations at Beijing's primary station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$11,626Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:20 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ensemble outputs from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), averaging highs near 22°C for Beijing on May 2 amid a cool northerly airflow and expected light rain or cloudy conditions that limit solar insolation and peak heating. The China Meteorological Administration's guidance aligns closely, forecasting a maximum around 20-21°C with gentle north winds following a frontal passage, below early May climatological norms of 24-26°C. Tight odds between 22°C (30%) and 23°C (24.5%) stem from model divergences on cloud cover persistence and exact timing of any clearing, with lower chances for 21°C or below (13%) hinging on heavier precipitation. Updated afternoon forecasts from official agencies today could refine these market-implied probabilities before resolution based on verified observations at Beijing's primary station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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