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Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 4?

icon for Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 4?

Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 4?

May 2

May 3

May 4

May 2

May 3

May 4

13°C 23%

12°C 19%

14°C 18%

11°C 17%

Polymarket
NEW

13°C 23%

12°C 19%

14°C 18%

11°C 17%

Polymarket
NEW

8°C or below

$33 Vol.

1%

9°C

$11 Vol.

7%

10°C

$5 Vol.

12%

11°C

$0 Vol.

17%

12°C

$0 Vol.

19%

13°C

$2 Vol.

23%

14°C

$2 Vol.

18%

15°C

$0 Vol.

15%

16°C

$0 Vol.

14%

17°C

$0 Vol.

7%

18°C or higher

$65 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Shanghai's May 4 minimum temperature reveals profound forecast uncertainty, with market-implied odds split evenly between extremes like 8°C or below and 18°C or higher at 25.5% each, reflecting divergent global model ensembles such as GFS and ECMWF on post-frontal evolution. A recent cold front sweeping the Yangtze River Delta brought rain and lows near 11°C on May 1–2, cooling the region below May climatological norms of 16°C; however, dry overcast conditions forecast for May 4 introduce variables like radiative cooling under potential sky clearing versus trapped heat from persistent stratus clouds. Light winds (8 mph) and low humidity (29%) favor deeper cooling, but new 00Z model runs and China Meteorological Administration updates today could sharpen consensus ahead of pre-dawn minimums at Pudong or central stations.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$119
End Date
May 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Shanghai's May 4 minimum temperature reveals profound forecast uncertainty, with market-implied odds split evenly between extremes like 8°C or below and 18°C or higher at 25.5% each, reflecting divergent global model ensembles such as GFS and ECMWF on post-frontal evolution. A recent cold front sweeping the Yangtze River Delta brought rain and lows near 11°C on May 1–2, cooling the region below May climatological norms of 16°C; however, dry overcast conditions forecast for May 4 introduce variables like radiative cooling under potential sky clearing versus trapped heat from persistent stratus clouds. Light winds (8 mph) and low humidity (29%) favor deeper cooling, but new 00Z model runs and China Meteorological Administration updates today could sharpen consensus ahead of pre-dawn minimums at Pudong or central stations.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$119
End Date
May 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "13°C" at 23%, followed by "12°C" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 4?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 4?" is "13°C" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "12°C" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.