Latest China Meteorological Administration and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS project Beijing's highest temperature on May 2 near 22°C, driving trader consensus with 32.5% implied probability for exactly 22°C edging out 21°C or below at 31.5%, amid tight 45-55% clustering across top outcomes. This reflects short-range forecast uncertainty from variable cloud cover, light northerly winds suppressing insolation, and lingering effects of cooler late-April conditions, including recent frontal passages that have kept highs below seasonal norms of 23-24°C. Key differentiators include boundary layer stability and diurnal heating rates: persistent overcast favors sub-22°C peaks, while breaks in clouds could push to 23°C. Watch CMA's daily updates for refined guidance as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on May 2?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 2?
22°C 33%
21°C or below 30%
23°C 24%
24°C 9%
NEW
$11,412 Vol.
NEW
$11,412 Vol.
May 2, 2026
21°C or below
30%
22°C
33%
23°C
24%
24°C
9%
25°C
6%
26°C
2%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
22°C 33%
21°C or below 30%
23°C 24%
24°C 9%
NEW
$11,412 Vol.
NEW
$11,412 Vol.
May 2, 2026
21°C or below
$1,790 Vol.
30%
22°C
$735 Vol.
33%
23°C
$382 Vol.
24%
24°C
$213 Vol.
9%
25°C
$309 Vol.
6%
26°C
$767 Vol.
2%
27°C
$2,592 Vol.
1%
28°C
$1,567 Vol.
1%
29°C
$1,065 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,443 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$549 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest China Meteorological Administration and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS project Beijing's highest temperature on May 2 near 22°C, driving trader consensus with 32.5% implied probability for exactly 22°C edging out 21°C or below at 31.5%, amid tight 45-55% clustering across top outcomes. This reflects short-range forecast uncertainty from variable cloud cover, light northerly winds suppressing insolation, and lingering effects of cooler late-April conditions, including recent frontal passages that have kept highs below seasonal norms of 23-24°C. Key differentiators include boundary layer stability and diurnal heating rates: persistent overcast favors sub-22°C peaks, while breaks in clouds could push to 23°C. Watch CMA's daily updates for refined guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:20 AM ET
Volume
$11,412End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:20 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest China Meteorological Administration and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS project Beijing's highest temperature on May 2 near 22°C, driving trader consensus with 32.5% implied probability for exactly 22°C edging out 21°C or below at 31.5%, amid tight 45-55% clustering across top outcomes. This reflects short-range forecast uncertainty from variable cloud cover, light northerly winds suppressing insolation, and lingering effects of cooler late-April conditions, including recent frontal passages that have kept highs below seasonal norms of 23-24°C. Key differentiators include boundary layer stability and diurnal heating rates: persistent overcast favors sub-22°C peaks, while breaks in clouds could push to 23°C. Watch CMA's daily updates for refined guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,412End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:20 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest China Meteorological Administration and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS project Beijing's highest temperature on May 2 near 22°C, driving trader consensus with 32.5% implied probability for exactly 22°C edging out 21°C or below at 31.5%, amid tight 45-55% clustering across top outcomes. This reflects short-range forecast uncertainty from variable cloud cover, light northerly winds suppressing insolation, and lingering effects of cooler late-April conditions, including recent frontal passages that have kept highs below seasonal norms of 23-24°C. Key differentiators include boundary layer stability and diurnal heating rates: persistent overcast favors sub-22°C peaks, while breaks in clouds could push to 23°C. Watch CMA's daily updates for refined guidance as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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