Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for Seoul's lowest temperature on May 4, with implied probabilities closely clustered around cooler outcomes like 5°C or below (25.1%) and warmer ones like 15°C or higher (25.0%), driven by ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs showing a 5–15°C range. Yesterday's KMA-observed minimum of 12°C under stable high pressure and light westerly winds sets a mild baseline, but potential northerly cold air advection or increased cloud cover from passing fronts could suppress lows to 5–10°C, while clearer skies and southerly flow favor 13–15°C+. Korea Meteorological Administration short-range updates, expected daily, and model consensus shifts will clarify steering patterns and radiative cooling potential before resolution at Seoul's official station. Climatological May early lows average 11–13°C, amplifying model disagreements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul on May 4?
Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 4?
10°C 41%
9°C 22%
8°C 21%
11°C 19%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
5°C or below
1%
6°C
5%
7°C
7%
8°C
21%
9°C
22%
10°C
24%
11°C
19%
12°C
11%
13°C
7%
14°C
5%
15°C or higher
3%
10°C 41%
9°C 22%
8°C 21%
11°C 19%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
6°C
$5 Vol.
5%
7°C
$0 Vol.
7%
8°C
$0 Vol.
21%
9°C
$0 Vol.
22%
10°C
$2 Vol.
24%
11°C
$0 Vol.
19%
12°C
$0 Vol.
11%
13°C
$0 Vol.
7%
14°C
$0 Vol.
5%
15°C or higher
$54 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for Seoul's lowest temperature on May 4, with implied probabilities closely clustered around cooler outcomes like 5°C or below (25.1%) and warmer ones like 15°C or higher (25.0%), driven by ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs showing a 5–15°C range. Yesterday's KMA-observed minimum of 12°C under stable high pressure and light westerly winds sets a mild baseline, but potential northerly cold air advection or increased cloud cover from passing fronts could suppress lows to 5–10°C, while clearer skies and southerly flow favor 13–15°C+. Korea Meteorological Administration short-range updates, expected daily, and model consensus shifts will clarify steering patterns and radiative cooling potential before resolution at Seoul's official station. Climatological May early lows average 11–13°C, amplifying model disagreements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$61End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for Seoul's lowest temperature on May 4, with implied probabilities closely clustered around cooler outcomes like 5°C or below (25.1%) and warmer ones like 15°C or higher (25.0%), driven by ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs showing a 5–15°C range. Yesterday's KMA-observed minimum of 12°C under stable high pressure and light westerly winds sets a mild baseline, but potential northerly cold air advection or increased cloud cover from passing fronts could suppress lows to 5–10°C, while clearer skies and southerly flow favor 13–15°C+. Korea Meteorological Administration short-range updates, expected daily, and model consensus shifts will clarify steering patterns and radiative cooling potential before resolution at Seoul's official station. Climatological May early lows average 11–13°C, amplifying model disagreements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$61End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for Seoul's lowest temperature on May 4, with implied probabilities closely clustered around cooler outcomes like 5°C or below (25.1%) and warmer ones like 15°C or higher (25.0%), driven by ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs showing a 5–15°C range. Yesterday's KMA-observed minimum of 12°C under stable high pressure and light westerly winds sets a mild baseline, but potential northerly cold air advection or increased cloud cover from passing fronts could suppress lows to 5–10°C, while clearer skies and southerly flow favor 13–15°C+. Korea Meteorological Administration short-range updates, expected daily, and model consensus shifts will clarify steering patterns and radiative cooling potential before resolution at Seoul's official station. Climatological May early lows average 11–13°C, amplifying model disagreements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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