Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Helsinki's highest temperature on May 4, with implied probabilities clustering around 9–13°C as the Finnish Meteorological Institute's latest guidance projects a maximum of 10°C under partly cloudy skies, morning showers (up to 1.1 mm), and southwest winds of 2–6 m/s gusting to 13 m/s. This aligns with ensemble model spreads from ECMWF and GFS showing mild southerly air flow but divergent cloud cover and precipitation timing—key factors that could cap highs near 9–11°C if showers persist or push toward 13°C+ with faster clearing. Early May climatology averages ~12°C provide baseline context, while sub-8°C outcomes remain unlikely given the season's baseline warmth. New FMI probability forecasts and high-resolution model runs due within 24 hours may refine these odds further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Helsinki on May 4?
Highest temperature in Helsinki on May 4?
11°C 28%
10°C 24%
12°C 20%
13°C or higher 16%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
3°C or below
1%
4°C
1%
5°C
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
5%
8°C
6%
9°C
14%
10°C
24%
11°C
28%
12°C
20%
13°C or higher
16%
11°C 28%
10°C 24%
12°C 20%
13°C or higher 16%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
3°C or below
$11 Vol.
1%
4°C
$10 Vol.
1%
5°C
$10 Vol.
1%
6°C
$10 Vol.
1%
7°C
$143 Vol.
5%
8°C
$0 Vol.
6%
9°C
$0 Vol.
14%
10°C
$1 Vol.
24%
11°C
$1 Vol.
28%
12°C
$0 Vol.
20%
13°C or higher
$20 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Helsinki's highest temperature on May 4, with implied probabilities clustering around 9–13°C as the Finnish Meteorological Institute's latest guidance projects a maximum of 10°C under partly cloudy skies, morning showers (up to 1.1 mm), and southwest winds of 2–6 m/s gusting to 13 m/s. This aligns with ensemble model spreads from ECMWF and GFS showing mild southerly air flow but divergent cloud cover and precipitation timing—key factors that could cap highs near 9–11°C if showers persist or push toward 13°C+ with faster clearing. Early May climatology averages ~12°C provide baseline context, while sub-8°C outcomes remain unlikely given the season's baseline warmth. New FMI probability forecasts and high-resolution model runs due within 24 hours may refine these odds further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$207End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Helsinki's highest temperature on May 4, with implied probabilities clustering around 9–13°C as the Finnish Meteorological Institute's latest guidance projects a maximum of 10°C under partly cloudy skies, morning showers (up to 1.1 mm), and southwest winds of 2–6 m/s gusting to 13 m/s. This aligns with ensemble model spreads from ECMWF and GFS showing mild southerly air flow but divergent cloud cover and precipitation timing—key factors that could cap highs near 9–11°C if showers persist or push toward 13°C+ with faster clearing. Early May climatology averages ~12°C provide baseline context, while sub-8°C outcomes remain unlikely given the season's baseline warmth. New FMI probability forecasts and high-resolution model runs due within 24 hours may refine these odds further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$207End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Helsinki's highest temperature on May 4, with implied probabilities clustering around 9–13°C as the Finnish Meteorological Institute's latest guidance projects a maximum of 10°C under partly cloudy skies, morning showers (up to 1.1 mm), and southwest winds of 2–6 m/s gusting to 13 m/s. This aligns with ensemble model spreads from ECMWF and GFS showing mild southerly air flow but divergent cloud cover and precipitation timing—key factors that could cap highs near 9–11°C if showers persist or push toward 13°C+ with faster clearing. Early May climatology averages ~12°C provide baseline context, while sub-8°C outcomes remain unlikely given the season's baseline warmth. New FMI probability forecasts and high-resolution model runs due within 24 hours may refine these odds further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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