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Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 4?

icon for Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 4?

Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 4?

May 2

May 3

May 4

May 2

May 3

May 4

27°C 35%

28°C 28%

29°C or higher 22%

26°C 16%

Polymarket
NEW

27°C 35%

28°C 28%

29°C or higher 22%

26°C 16%

Polymarket
NEW

19°C or below

$21 Vol.

1%

20°C

$10 Vol.

1%

21°C

$57 Vol.

1%

22°C

$10 Vol.

1%

23°C

$27 Vol.

1%

24°C

$30 Vol.

4%

25°C

$5 Vol.

7%

26°C

$6 Vol.

16%

27°C

$55 Vol.

35%

28°C

$43 Vol.

22%

29°C or higher

$0 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts have converged on Warsaw highs of 27-28°C on May 4 under a persistent high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, delivering subsidence warming, clear skies, and southerly winds advecting mild continental air—well above the climatological early-May average of 19°C from IMGW and NOAA baselines. This setup, building since May 2's observed 15-26°C range, positions 29°C or higher at 50.5% implied probability, reflecting GFS outliers favoring enhanced surface heating, while ECMWF's cooler ~25°C tilt bolsters 26-28°C outcomes near 35-36%. Model spread highlights uncertainty in cloud cover and exact ridge strength; IMGW updates and new runs due by May 3 could shift trader consensus as resolution nears.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$240
End Date
May 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:47 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts have converged on Warsaw highs of 27-28°C on May 4 under a persistent high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, delivering subsidence warming, clear skies, and southerly winds advecting mild continental air—well above the climatological early-May average of 19°C from IMGW and NOAA baselines. This setup, building since May 2's observed 15-26°C range, positions 29°C or higher at 50.5% implied probability, reflecting GFS outliers favoring enhanced surface heating, while ECMWF's cooler ~25°C tilt bolsters 26-28°C outcomes near 35-36%. Model spread highlights uncertainty in cloud cover and exact ridge strength; IMGW updates and new runs due by May 3 could shift trader consensus as resolution nears.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$240
End Date
May 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:47 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "27°C" at 35%, followed by "28°C" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 35¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 4?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 4?" is "27°C" at 35%, meaning the market assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "28°C" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.