Latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts point to a 16°C overnight low in Shanghai on May 2 under overcast skies, aligning with the top trader consensus at 30% implied probability and reflecting ensemble agreement from global models like ECMWF and GFS. This positioning stems from a recent late-April cool spell, with observed lows dipping to 12-13°C, giving way to a stabilizing high-pressure ridge that limits further cooling via suppressed radiative losses. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover—thicker overcast favors 16-17°C by trapping heat, while breaks could allow 14-15°C—and light winds around 5-10 km/h, per model outputs; historical early-May averages hover at 15.6°C with a 2°C standard deviation. Updated CMA bulletins and new model runs expected within 24 hours may sharpen the closely contested 14-17°C cluster before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 2?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 2?
16°C 39%
17°C 35%
15°C 27%
14°C 21%
NEW
NEW
May 2, 2026
11°C or below
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
18%
14°C
21%
15°C
22%
16°C
28%
17°C
20%
18°C
10%
19°C
6%
20°C
1%
21°C or higher
1%
16°C 39%
17°C 35%
15°C 27%
14°C 21%
NEW
NEW
May 2, 2026
11°C or below
$56 Vol.
1%
12°C
$56 Vol.
1%
13°C
$44 Vol.
18%
14°C
$12 Vol.
21%
15°C
$152 Vol.
22%
16°C
$61 Vol.
28%
17°C
$47 Vol.
20%
18°C
$12 Vol.
10%
19°C
$44 Vol.
6%
20°C
$56 Vol.
1%
21°C or higher
$56 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts point to a 16°C overnight low in Shanghai on May 2 under overcast skies, aligning with the top trader consensus at 30% implied probability and reflecting ensemble agreement from global models like ECMWF and GFS. This positioning stems from a recent late-April cool spell, with observed lows dipping to 12-13°C, giving way to a stabilizing high-pressure ridge that limits further cooling via suppressed radiative losses. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover—thicker overcast favors 16-17°C by trapping heat, while breaks could allow 14-15°C—and light winds around 5-10 km/h, per model outputs; historical early-May averages hover at 15.6°C with a 2°C standard deviation. Updated CMA bulletins and new model runs expected within 24 hours may sharpen the closely contested 14-17°C cluster before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$597End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts point to a 16°C overnight low in Shanghai on May 2 under overcast skies, aligning with the top trader consensus at 30% implied probability and reflecting ensemble agreement from global models like ECMWF and GFS. This positioning stems from a recent late-April cool spell, with observed lows dipping to 12-13°C, giving way to a stabilizing high-pressure ridge that limits further cooling via suppressed radiative losses. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover—thicker overcast favors 16-17°C by trapping heat, while breaks could allow 14-15°C—and light winds around 5-10 km/h, per model outputs; historical early-May averages hover at 15.6°C with a 2°C standard deviation. Updated CMA bulletins and new model runs expected within 24 hours may sharpen the closely contested 14-17°C cluster before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$597End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts point to a 16°C overnight low in Shanghai on May 2 under overcast skies, aligning with the top trader consensus at 30% implied probability and reflecting ensemble agreement from global models like ECMWF and GFS. This positioning stems from a recent late-April cool spell, with observed lows dipping to 12-13°C, giving way to a stabilizing high-pressure ridge that limits further cooling via suppressed radiative losses. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover—thicker overcast favors 16-17°C by trapping heat, while breaks could allow 14-15°C—and light winds around 5-10 km/h, per model outputs; historical early-May averages hover at 15.6°C with a 2°C standard deviation. Updated CMA bulletins and new model runs expected within 24 hours may sharpen the closely contested 14-17°C cluster before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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