Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects genuine uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Chongqing's highest temperature on May 4, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 25–29°C amid model ensemble spreads from sources like ECMWF and China Meteorological Administration projections. Recent developments—a passing cold front delivering persistent cloud cover and light rain—have suppressed highs to 17–19°C over May 1–2, down sharply from 27°C on April 30, limiting solar insolation and surface heating in this humid subtropical basin. Differentiation hinges on clearing skies and southerly winds: fuller sunshine could push toward 28–29°C per BBC and climatological analogs (May average high 27–28°C), while lingering overcast favors 25–26°C; watch CMA evening updates and GFS runs for shifts before resolution at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chongqing on May 4?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on May 4?
28°C 23%
26°C 19%
27°C 19%
25°C 15%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
4%
24°C
2%
25°C
15%
26°C
19%
27°C
19%
28°C
23%
29°C
8%
30°C
3%
31°C
3%
32°C or higher
1%
28°C 23%
26°C 19%
27°C 19%
25°C 15%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
22°C or below
$161 Vol.
1%
23°C
$65 Vol.
4%
24°C
$210 Vol.
2%
25°C
$0 Vol.
15%
26°C
$0 Vol.
19%
27°C
$1 Vol.
19%
28°C
$0 Vol.
23%
29°C
$25 Vol.
8%
30°C
$5 Vol.
3%
31°C
$0 Vol.
3%
32°C or higher
$11 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects genuine uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Chongqing's highest temperature on May 4, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 25–29°C amid model ensemble spreads from sources like ECMWF and China Meteorological Administration projections. Recent developments—a passing cold front delivering persistent cloud cover and light rain—have suppressed highs to 17–19°C over May 1–2, down sharply from 27°C on April 30, limiting solar insolation and surface heating in this humid subtropical basin. Differentiation hinges on clearing skies and southerly winds: fuller sunshine could push toward 28–29°C per BBC and climatological analogs (May average high 27–28°C), while lingering overcast favors 25–26°C; watch CMA evening updates and GFS runs for shifts before resolution at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Volume
$478End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:21 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects genuine uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Chongqing's highest temperature on May 4, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 25–29°C amid model ensemble spreads from sources like ECMWF and China Meteorological Administration projections. Recent developments—a passing cold front delivering persistent cloud cover and light rain—have suppressed highs to 17–19°C over May 1–2, down sharply from 27°C on April 30, limiting solar insolation and surface heating in this humid subtropical basin. Differentiation hinges on clearing skies and southerly winds: fuller sunshine could push toward 28–29°C per BBC and climatological analogs (May average high 27–28°C), while lingering overcast favors 25–26°C; watch CMA evening updates and GFS runs for shifts before resolution at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$478End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:21 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects genuine uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Chongqing's highest temperature on May 4, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 25–29°C amid model ensemble spreads from sources like ECMWF and China Meteorological Administration projections. Recent developments—a passing cold front delivering persistent cloud cover and light rain—have suppressed highs to 17–19°C over May 1–2, down sharply from 27°C on April 30, limiting solar insolation and surface heating in this humid subtropical basin. Differentiation hinges on clearing skies and southerly winds: fuller sunshine could push toward 28–29°C per BBC and climatological analogs (May average high 27–28°C), while lingering overcast favors 25–26°C; watch CMA evening updates and GFS runs for shifts before resolution at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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