Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between a chilly minimum of 11°C or below (50%) and an unseasonably warm low of 21°C or higher (50%), reflecting high uncertainty in global forecast ensembles like GFS and ECMWF for Shanghai on May 3 amid a recent cold air outbreak in eastern China. Just days ago, a sharp frontal passage drove daytime highs below 12°C in Shanghai—the coldest in weeks—while ongoing heavy rainfall threats from southern systems introduce variable cloud cover that could either enhance radiative cooling for sub-12°C lows under clear northerly winds or trap heat for 20°C+ minima if overcast persists. China Meteorological Administration updates and fresh 00Z model runs tomorrow will likely sharpen this bimodal risk, as historical May lows average 16°C with limited extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 3?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 3?
14°C 21%
16°C 10%
13°C 10%
15°C 8%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
11°C or below
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
10%
14°C
21%
15°C
25%
16°C
19%
17°C
20%
18°C
6%
19°C
4%
20°C
4%
21°C or higher
8%
14°C 21%
16°C 10%
13°C 10%
15°C 8%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
11°C or below
$37 Vol.
1%
12°C
$10 Vol.
3%
13°C
$0 Vol.
10%
14°C
$32 Vol.
21%
15°C
$31 Vol.
25%
16°C
$16 Vol.
19%
17°C
$18 Vol.
20%
18°C
$44 Vol.
6%
19°C
$33 Vol.
4%
20°C
$33 Vol.
4%
21°C or higher
$301 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between a chilly minimum of 11°C or below (50%) and an unseasonably warm low of 21°C or higher (50%), reflecting high uncertainty in global forecast ensembles like GFS and ECMWF for Shanghai on May 3 amid a recent cold air outbreak in eastern China. Just days ago, a sharp frontal passage drove daytime highs below 12°C in Shanghai—the coldest in weeks—while ongoing heavy rainfall threats from southern systems introduce variable cloud cover that could either enhance radiative cooling for sub-12°C lows under clear northerly winds or trap heat for 20°C+ minima if overcast persists. China Meteorological Administration updates and fresh 00Z model runs tomorrow will likely sharpen this bimodal risk, as historical May lows average 16°C with limited extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$556End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between a chilly minimum of 11°C or below (50%) and an unseasonably warm low of 21°C or higher (50%), reflecting high uncertainty in global forecast ensembles like GFS and ECMWF for Shanghai on May 3 amid a recent cold air outbreak in eastern China. Just days ago, a sharp frontal passage drove daytime highs below 12°C in Shanghai—the coldest in weeks—while ongoing heavy rainfall threats from southern systems introduce variable cloud cover that could either enhance radiative cooling for sub-12°C lows under clear northerly winds or trap heat for 20°C+ minima if overcast persists. China Meteorological Administration updates and fresh 00Z model runs tomorrow will likely sharpen this bimodal risk, as historical May lows average 16°C with limited extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$556End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between a chilly minimum of 11°C or below (50%) and an unseasonably warm low of 21°C or higher (50%), reflecting high uncertainty in global forecast ensembles like GFS and ECMWF for Shanghai on May 3 amid a recent cold air outbreak in eastern China. Just days ago, a sharp frontal passage drove daytime highs below 12°C in Shanghai—the coldest in weeks—while ongoing heavy rainfall threats from southern systems introduce variable cloud cover that could either enhance radiative cooling for sub-12°C lows under clear northerly winds or trap heat for 20°C+ minima if overcast persists. China Meteorological Administration updates and fresh 00Z model runs tomorrow will likely sharpen this bimodal risk, as historical May lows average 16°C with limited extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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