Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 15–17°C for Wellington's highest temperature on May 2, mirroring the latest MetService forecast of a 16°C daytime high under fine conditions and northerlies dying out in the afternoon. This reflects a stable high-pressure ridge over New Zealand, delivering mild autumnal air from the north after cooler southerlies earlier in the week, with minimal cloud cover allowing solar heating to peak mid-afternoon. Differentiating factors include forecast model spread—ensemble means hover near 16°C, but slight timing variations in northerly winds or sea breeze onset could nudge maxima toward 15°C (cooler coastal influence) or 17°C (prolonged warming). Historical early-May highs average 14°C at Wellington's Kelburn station, underscoring the northerly boost. Updated NIWA and MetService guidance expected daily through May 1.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on May 2?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 2?
16°C 34%
17°C 29%
15°C 25%
18°C 9%
NEW
NEW
May 2, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
25%
16°C
34%
17°C
29%
18°C
9%
19°C
2%
20°C or higher
1%
16°C 34%
17°C 29%
15°C 25%
18°C 9%
NEW
NEW
May 2, 2026
10°C or below
$1,584 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,153 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$982 Vol.
1%
13°C
$628 Vol.
1%
14°C
$909 Vol.
2%
15°C
$371 Vol.
25%
16°C
$761 Vol.
34%
17°C
$640 Vol.
29%
18°C
$324 Vol.
9%
19°C
$762 Vol.
2%
20°C or higher
$101 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 15–17°C for Wellington's highest temperature on May 2, mirroring the latest MetService forecast of a 16°C daytime high under fine conditions and northerlies dying out in the afternoon. This reflects a stable high-pressure ridge over New Zealand, delivering mild autumnal air from the north after cooler southerlies earlier in the week, with minimal cloud cover allowing solar heating to peak mid-afternoon. Differentiating factors include forecast model spread—ensemble means hover near 16°C, but slight timing variations in northerly winds or sea breeze onset could nudge maxima toward 15°C (cooler coastal influence) or 17°C (prolonged warming). Historical early-May highs average 14°C at Wellington's Kelburn station, underscoring the northerly boost. Updated NIWA and MetService guidance expected daily through May 1.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$8,216End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 15–17°C for Wellington's highest temperature on May 2, mirroring the latest MetService forecast of a 16°C daytime high under fine conditions and northerlies dying out in the afternoon. This reflects a stable high-pressure ridge over New Zealand, delivering mild autumnal air from the north after cooler southerlies earlier in the week, with minimal cloud cover allowing solar heating to peak mid-afternoon. Differentiating factors include forecast model spread—ensemble means hover near 16°C, but slight timing variations in northerly winds or sea breeze onset could nudge maxima toward 15°C (cooler coastal influence) or 17°C (prolonged warming). Historical early-May highs average 14°C at Wellington's Kelburn station, underscoring the northerly boost. Updated NIWA and MetService guidance expected daily through May 1.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,216End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 15–17°C for Wellington's highest temperature on May 2, mirroring the latest MetService forecast of a 16°C daytime high under fine conditions and northerlies dying out in the afternoon. This reflects a stable high-pressure ridge over New Zealand, delivering mild autumnal air from the north after cooler southerlies earlier in the week, with minimal cloud cover allowing solar heating to peak mid-afternoon. Differentiating factors include forecast model spread—ensemble means hover near 16°C, but slight timing variations in northerly winds or sea breeze onset could nudge maxima toward 15°C (cooler coastal influence) or 17°C (prolonged warming). Historical early-May highs average 14°C at Wellington's Kelburn station, underscoring the northerly boost. Updated NIWA and MetService guidance expected daily through May 1.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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