Latest China Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts and ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models project Chengdu's highest temperature on May 2 at 22-24°C, driving the tight trader consensus with 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C each around 24-26% implied probability. Persistent overcast skies and early showers, remnants of a recent cold air mass and frontal system that cooled late April highs below 20°C, limit solar insolation and cap peak heating in the Sichuan Basin's humid climate. Differentiating factors include afternoon cloud breaks—persistent cover favors 22°C, partial clearing pushes toward 24°C—against a May climatological average of 26°C. New model runs and CMA advisories expected May 1 could refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution at Shuangliu International Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 2?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 2?
23°C 33%
22°C 29%
24°C 20%
21°C 12%
NEW
NEW
May 2, 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
4%
20°C
8%
21°C
12%
22°C
29%
23°C
33%
24°C
20%
25°C
7%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
1%
23°C 33%
22°C 29%
24°C 20%
21°C 12%
NEW
NEW
May 2, 2026
17°C or below
$1,443 Vol.
1%
18°C
$966 Vol.
1%
19°C
$1,165 Vol.
4%
20°C
$263 Vol.
8%
21°C
$307 Vol.
12%
22°C
$304 Vol.
29%
23°C
$714 Vol.
33%
24°C
$126 Vol.
20%
25°C
$1,382 Vol.
7%
26°C
$372 Vol.
1%
27°C or higher
$1,594 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest China Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts and ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models project Chengdu's highest temperature on May 2 at 22-24°C, driving the tight trader consensus with 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C each around 24-26% implied probability. Persistent overcast skies and early showers, remnants of a recent cold air mass and frontal system that cooled late April highs below 20°C, limit solar insolation and cap peak heating in the Sichuan Basin's humid climate. Differentiating factors include afternoon cloud breaks—persistent cover favors 22°C, partial clearing pushes toward 24°C—against a May climatological average of 26°C. New model runs and CMA advisories expected May 1 could refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution at Shuangliu International Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$8,615End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest China Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts and ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models project Chengdu's highest temperature on May 2 at 22-24°C, driving the tight trader consensus with 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C each around 24-26% implied probability. Persistent overcast skies and early showers, remnants of a recent cold air mass and frontal system that cooled late April highs below 20°C, limit solar insolation and cap peak heating in the Sichuan Basin's humid climate. Differentiating factors include afternoon cloud breaks—persistent cover favors 22°C, partial clearing pushes toward 24°C—against a May climatological average of 26°C. New model runs and CMA advisories expected May 1 could refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution at Shuangliu International Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,615End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest China Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts and ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models project Chengdu's highest temperature on May 2 at 22-24°C, driving the tight trader consensus with 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C each around 24-26% implied probability. Persistent overcast skies and early showers, remnants of a recent cold air mass and frontal system that cooled late April highs below 20°C, limit solar insolation and cap peak heating in the Sichuan Basin's humid climate. Differentiating factors include afternoon cloud breaks—persistent cover favors 22°C, partial clearing pushes toward 24°C—against a May climatological average of 26°C. New model runs and CMA advisories expected May 1 could refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution at Shuangliu International Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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