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Highest temperature in Austin on May 3?

icon for Highest temperature in Austin on May 3?

Highest temperature in Austin on May 3?

Apr 30

May 1

May 2

May 3

Apr 30

May 1

May 2

May 3

76°F or higher 79%

74-75°F 9%

70-71°F 2.7%

72-73°F 2.7%

Polymarket
NEW

76°F or higher 79%

74-75°F 9%

70-71°F 2.7%

72-73°F 2.7%

Polymarket
NEW

57°F or below

$20 Vol.

1%

58-59°F

$5 Vol.

1%

60-61°F

$5 Vol.

1%

62-63°F

$5 Vol.

1%

64-65°F

$5 Vol.

1%

66-67°F

$126 Vol.

1%

68-69°F

$10 Vol.

1%

70-71°F

$20 Vol.

3%

72-73°F

$20 Vol.

3%

74-75°F

$45 Vol.

9%

76°F or higher

$260 Vol.

79%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The National Weather Service forecast models indicate a high near 78°F for Austin on May 3, driving trader consensus to a 69% implied probability for 76°F or higher, as a ridge of high pressure builds following recent showers and a Flood Watch through early weekend. Southerly winds and post-frontal clearing support rapid warming after current overcast conditions and lows in the 50s-60s, aligning with early May climatological norms where highs average 83°F and rarely dip below 76°F. The 18% odds for 74-75°F hedge against lingering clouds or isolated thunderstorms capping temperatures, while cooler outcomes below 73°F at 0.6% reflect their rarity amid above-normal temperature outlooks from NOAA. Updated model runs expected daily could refine these probabilities.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$521
End Date
May 3, 2026
Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:13 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The National Weather Service forecast models indicate a high near 78°F for Austin on May 3, driving trader consensus to a 69% implied probability for 76°F or higher, as a ridge of high pressure builds following recent showers and a Flood Watch through early weekend. Southerly winds and post-frontal clearing support rapid warming after current overcast conditions and lows in the 50s-60s, aligning with early May climatological norms where highs average 83°F and rarely dip below 76°F. The 18% odds for 74-75°F hedge against lingering clouds or isolated thunderstorms capping temperatures, while cooler outcomes below 73°F at 0.6% reflect their rarity amid above-normal temperature outlooks from NOAA. Updated model runs expected daily could refine these probabilities.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$521
End Date
May 3, 2026
Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:13 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Austin on May 3?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "76°F or higher" at 79%, followed by "74-75°F" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 79¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Austin on May 3?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Austin on May 3?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Austin on May 3?" is "76°F or higher" at 79%, meaning the market assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "74-75°F" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Austin on May 3?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.