Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF show Panama City, Florida, highs clustering tightly around 28–32°C on May 4, driving the balanced trader sentiment with no outcome exceeding 27% implied probability. This uncertainty stems from variable subtropical ridge strength over the Gulf Coast, which could amplify solar heating and subsidence for 31–32°C+ peaks if dominant, versus increased sea breeze convergence and afternoon thunderstorms capping temps nearer 28–29°C. Gulf sea surface temperatures near 26°C support warm advection, while climatological early-May averages hover at 28°C amid rising seasonal trends. Watch NWS Tallahassee updates and 00Z model refreshes Sunday for refined guidance on convective timing and cloud cover impacts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Panama City on May 4?
Highest temperature in Panama City on May 4?
29°C 29%
32°C or higher 27%
31°C 24%
30°C 22%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
10%
29°C
29%
30°C
22%
31°C
24%
32°C or higher
27%
29°C 29%
32°C or higher 27%
31°C 24%
30°C 22%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
22°C or below
$86 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$0 Vol.
1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
4%
28°C
$0 Vol.
10%
29°C
$0 Vol.
29%
30°C
$0 Vol.
22%
31°C
$0 Vol.
24%
32°C or higher
$5 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF show Panama City, Florida, highs clustering tightly around 28–32°C on May 4, driving the balanced trader sentiment with no outcome exceeding 27% implied probability. This uncertainty stems from variable subtropical ridge strength over the Gulf Coast, which could amplify solar heating and subsidence for 31–32°C+ peaks if dominant, versus increased sea breeze convergence and afternoon thunderstorms capping temps nearer 28–29°C. Gulf sea surface temperatures near 26°C support warm advection, while climatological early-May averages hover at 28°C amid rising seasonal trends. Watch NWS Tallahassee updates and 00Z model refreshes Sunday for refined guidance on convective timing and cloud cover impacts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:47 AM ET
Volume
$92End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:47 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF show Panama City, Florida, highs clustering tightly around 28–32°C on May 4, driving the balanced trader sentiment with no outcome exceeding 27% implied probability. This uncertainty stems from variable subtropical ridge strength over the Gulf Coast, which could amplify solar heating and subsidence for 31–32°C+ peaks if dominant, versus increased sea breeze convergence and afternoon thunderstorms capping temps nearer 28–29°C. Gulf sea surface temperatures near 26°C support warm advection, while climatological early-May averages hover at 28°C amid rising seasonal trends. Watch NWS Tallahassee updates and 00Z model refreshes Sunday for refined guidance on convective timing and cloud cover impacts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$92End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:47 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF show Panama City, Florida, highs clustering tightly around 28–32°C on May 4, driving the balanced trader sentiment with no outcome exceeding 27% implied probability. This uncertainty stems from variable subtropical ridge strength over the Gulf Coast, which could amplify solar heating and subsidence for 31–32°C+ peaks if dominant, versus increased sea breeze convergence and afternoon thunderstorms capping temps nearer 28–29°C. Gulf sea surface temperatures near 26°C support warm advection, while climatological early-May averages hover at 28°C amid rising seasonal trends. Watch NWS Tallahassee updates and 00Z model refreshes Sunday for refined guidance on convective timing and cloud cover impacts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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