National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus from GFS and ECMWF project a high temperature in Denver around 64-69°F on May 4, driving the 86.5% market-implied probability for 60°F or higher amid an upper-level ridge building over the central Rockies. This follows a cool late April with highs in the mid-40s to upper-50s, as observed at Denver International Airport, transitioning to a warming trend with drier conditions and mostly sunny skies expected. Early May climatological normals hover near 65°F, aligning with trader sentiment, though short-range forecast uncertainty remains from potential diurnal cloud development or weak disturbances. Updated model runs expected Sunday could refine probabilities further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Denver on May 4?
Highest temperature in Denver on May 4?
60°F or higher 96.5%
58-59°F 3.5%
56-57°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
41°F or below
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
4%
60°F or higher
97%
60°F or higher 96.5%
58-59°F 3.5%
56-57°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
41°F or below
$43 Vol.
<1%
42-43°F
$20 Vol.
<1%
44-45°F
$20 Vol.
<1%
46-47°F
$20 Vol.
<1%
48-49°F
$148 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$130 Vol.
1%
52-53°F
$120 Vol.
1%
54-55°F
$120 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$77 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$160 Vol.
4%
60°F or higher
$207 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Buckley Space Force Base Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus from GFS and ECMWF project a high temperature in Denver around 64-69°F on May 4, driving the 86.5% market-implied probability for 60°F or higher amid an upper-level ridge building over the central Rockies. This follows a cool late April with highs in the mid-40s to upper-50s, as observed at Denver International Airport, transitioning to a warming trend with drier conditions and mostly sunny skies expected. Early May climatological normals hover near 65°F, aligning with trader sentiment, though short-range forecast uncertainty remains from potential diurnal cloud development or weak disturbances. Updated model runs expected Sunday could refine probabilities further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Buckley Space Force Base Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Buckley Space Force Base Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$1,065End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKFResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Buckley Space Force Base Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus from GFS and ECMWF project a high temperature in Denver around 64-69°F on May 4, driving the 86.5% market-implied probability for 60°F or higher amid an upper-level ridge building over the central Rockies. This follows a cool late April with highs in the mid-40s to upper-50s, as observed at Denver International Airport, transitioning to a warming trend with drier conditions and mostly sunny skies expected. Early May climatological normals hover near 65°F, aligning with trader sentiment, though short-range forecast uncertainty remains from potential diurnal cloud development or weak disturbances. Updated model runs expected Sunday could refine probabilities further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Buckley Space Force Base Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Buckley Space Force Base Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,065End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKFResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus from GFS and ECMWF project a high temperature in Denver around 64-69°F on May 4, driving the 86.5% market-implied probability for 60°F or higher amid an upper-level ridge building over the central Rockies. This follows a cool late April with highs in the mid-40s to upper-50s, as observed at Denver International Airport, transitioning to a warming trend with drier conditions and mostly sunny skies expected. Early May climatological normals hover near 65°F, aligning with trader sentiment, though short-range forecast uncertainty remains from potential diurnal cloud development or weak disturbances. Updated model runs expected Sunday could refine probabilities further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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