Trader consensus favors 21°C as the highest temperature in London on May 2, with 36% implied probability, closely trailed by 22°C and 20°C, reflecting the latest Met Office forecast of a 23°C daytime maximum under sunny intervals before evening showers and rain probabilities rising to 90%. This positioning stems from the April 30 update showing above-average warmth—seasonal norms hover around 17°C—amid a transition from late April's dominant high pressure, which delivered settled, dry conditions and recent peaks near 26°C, to an incoming Atlantic low bringing cloudier skies over the bank holiday weekend. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS converge on low- to mid-20s peaks at Heathrow, London's key measurement site, though inherent short-range uncertainty in cloud cover and shower timing could shave 1-2°C; watch daily forecast refreshes for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on May 2?
Highest temperature in London on May 2?
21°C 37%
22°C 23%
20°C 17%
23°C 14.9%
NEW
$35,245 Vol.
NEW
$35,245 Vol.
May 2, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
5%
20°C
17%
21°C
37%
22°C
23%
23°C
15%
24°C
2%
25°C or higher
1%
21°C 37%
22°C 23%
20°C 17%
23°C 14.9%
NEW
$35,245 Vol.
NEW
$35,245 Vol.
May 2, 2026
15°C or below
$7,420 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$3,281 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$5,609 Vol.
1%
18°C
$2,613 Vol.
1%
19°C
$1,230 Vol.
5%
20°C
$1,608 Vol.
17%
21°C
$2,537 Vol.
37%
22°C
$3,738 Vol.
23%
23°C
$2,253 Vol.
15%
24°C
$1,861 Vol.
2%
25°C or higher
$3,106 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors 21°C as the highest temperature in London on May 2, with 36% implied probability, closely trailed by 22°C and 20°C, reflecting the latest Met Office forecast of a 23°C daytime maximum under sunny intervals before evening showers and rain probabilities rising to 90%. This positioning stems from the April 30 update showing above-average warmth—seasonal norms hover around 17°C—amid a transition from late April's dominant high pressure, which delivered settled, dry conditions and recent peaks near 26°C, to an incoming Atlantic low bringing cloudier skies over the bank holiday weekend. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS converge on low- to mid-20s peaks at Heathrow, London's key measurement site, though inherent short-range uncertainty in cloud cover and shower timing could shave 1-2°C; watch daily forecast refreshes for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$35,245End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors 21°C as the highest temperature in London on May 2, with 36% implied probability, closely trailed by 22°C and 20°C, reflecting the latest Met Office forecast of a 23°C daytime maximum under sunny intervals before evening showers and rain probabilities rising to 90%. This positioning stems from the April 30 update showing above-average warmth—seasonal norms hover around 17°C—amid a transition from late April's dominant high pressure, which delivered settled, dry conditions and recent peaks near 26°C, to an incoming Atlantic low bringing cloudier skies over the bank holiday weekend. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS converge on low- to mid-20s peaks at Heathrow, London's key measurement site, though inherent short-range uncertainty in cloud cover and shower timing could shave 1-2°C; watch daily forecast refreshes for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$35,245End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 21°C as the highest temperature in London on May 2, with 36% implied probability, closely trailed by 22°C and 20°C, reflecting the latest Met Office forecast of a 23°C daytime maximum under sunny intervals before evening showers and rain probabilities rising to 90%. This positioning stems from the April 30 update showing above-average warmth—seasonal norms hover around 17°C—amid a transition from late April's dominant high pressure, which delivered settled, dry conditions and recent peaks near 26°C, to an incoming Atlantic low bringing cloudier skies over the bank holiday weekend. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS converge on low- to mid-20s peaks at Heathrow, London's key measurement site, though inherent short-range uncertainty in cloud cover and shower timing could shave 1-2°C; watch daily forecast refreshes for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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