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Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 4?

icon for Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 4?

Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 4?

May 2

May 3

May 4

May 2

May 3

May 4

26°C or higher 92%

25°C 7.5%

24°C 3.7%

23°C 1.8%

Polymarket
NEW

26°C or higher 92%

25°C 7.5%

24°C 3.7%

23°C 1.8%

Polymarket
NEW

16°C or below

$0 Vol.

1%

17°C

$0 Vol.

1%

18°C

$0 Vol.

1%

19°C

$0 Vol.

1%

20°C

$0 Vol.

1%

21°C

$0 Vol.

1%

22°C

$10 Vol.

1%

23°C

$10 Vol.

2%

24°C

$10 Vol.

4%

25°C

$52 Vol.

8%

26°C or higher

$23 Vol.

92%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) latest regional forecast projects a high of 28–30°C for Mexico City on May 4 amid persistent warm conditions driven by anticyclonic circulation and lingering effects from an April–early May heat wave, where May 1 reached 32.9°C. This consensus from official models and sites like Weather.com (28°C high) explains the 51% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher, reflecting trader alignment with above-average temperatures typical for the city's high-elevation dry season but elevated by recent anomalies. Narrow bins for exact temperatures like 24–25°C see low odds due to resolution specifics, while potential afternoon chubascos add uncertainty; watch SMN's next update around midday May 2 for refinements.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$105
End Date
May 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) latest regional forecast projects a high of 28–30°C for Mexico City on May 4 amid persistent warm conditions driven by anticyclonic circulation and lingering effects from an April–early May heat wave, where May 1 reached 32.9°C. This consensus from official models and sites like Weather.com (28°C high) explains the 51% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher, reflecting trader alignment with above-average temperatures typical for the city's high-elevation dry season but elevated by recent anomalies. Narrow bins for exact temperatures like 24–25°C see low odds due to resolution specifics, while potential afternoon chubascos add uncertainty; watch SMN's next update around midday May 2 for refinements.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$105
End Date
May 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "26°C or higher" at 92%, followed by "25°C" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 4?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 4?" is "26°C or higher" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "25°C" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.