Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts, with implied odds clustered at 14–18°C (20–22%) for Amsterdam's May 4 high temperature, mirroring ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS models projecting 2-meter highs near 15–17°C. Recent KNMI updates highlight a transitional pattern following cool northerly airflow and scattered showers over the past week, which capped early May temperatures below seasonal norms (historical May 4 average ~15.5°C); current cloudy conditions with potential showers limit diurnal heating, while brief sunny breaks could push toward 18°C. Model disagreements stem from frontal timing and cloud evolution, with new 12Z runs expected today to sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution via official Schiphol observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on May 4?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 4?
17°C 33%
16°C 27%
18°C 24%
15°C 13%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
12°C or below
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
6%
15°C
13%
16°C
27%
17°C
33%
18°C
24%
19°C
6%
20°C
5%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
1%
17°C 33%
16°C 27%
18°C 24%
15°C 13%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
12°C or below
$11 Vol.
1%
13°C
$266 Vol.
1%
14°C
$124 Vol.
6%
15°C
$15 Vol.
13%
16°C
$126 Vol.
27%
17°C
$3 Vol.
33%
18°C
$0 Vol.
24%
19°C
$0 Vol.
6%
20°C
$26 Vol.
5%
21°C
$10 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts, with implied odds clustered at 14–18°C (20–22%) for Amsterdam's May 4 high temperature, mirroring ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS models projecting 2-meter highs near 15–17°C. Recent KNMI updates highlight a transitional pattern following cool northerly airflow and scattered showers over the past week, which capped early May temperatures below seasonal norms (historical May 4 average ~15.5°C); current cloudy conditions with potential showers limit diurnal heating, while brief sunny breaks could push toward 18°C. Model disagreements stem from frontal timing and cloud evolution, with new 12Z runs expected today to sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution via official Schiphol observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$591End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts, with implied odds clustered at 14–18°C (20–22%) for Amsterdam's May 4 high temperature, mirroring ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS models projecting 2-meter highs near 15–17°C. Recent KNMI updates highlight a transitional pattern following cool northerly airflow and scattered showers over the past week, which capped early May temperatures below seasonal norms (historical May 4 average ~15.5°C); current cloudy conditions with potential showers limit diurnal heating, while brief sunny breaks could push toward 18°C. Model disagreements stem from frontal timing and cloud evolution, with new 12Z runs expected today to sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution via official Schiphol observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$591End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts, with implied odds clustered at 14–18°C (20–22%) for Amsterdam's May 4 high temperature, mirroring ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS models projecting 2-meter highs near 15–17°C. Recent KNMI updates highlight a transitional pattern following cool northerly airflow and scattered showers over the past week, which capped early May temperatures below seasonal norms (historical May 4 average ~15.5°C); current cloudy conditions with potential showers limit diurnal heating, while brief sunny breaks could push toward 18°C. Model disagreements stem from frontal timing and cloud evolution, with new 12Z runs expected today to sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution via official Schiphol observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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