Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 25°C in Qingdao on May 6, backed by real-time observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport, where midday readings peaked at 25°C under clear skies, light southerly winds, and strong surface heating typical of early May diurnal cycles. Current atmospheric conditions—a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing clouds—align with numerical weather prediction models like CMA's GRAPES, forecasting no further intensification before evening cooldown. Historical May averages hover around 20–22°C, making this mild warmup unremarkable. Challenges could arise from unexpected late-afternoon solar heating or station microclimate revisions in the final CMA daily report, though probabilities remain negligible with sunset approaching.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on May 6?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 6?
25°C 100.0%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$116,313 Vol.
$116,313 Vol.
May 6, 2026
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
25°C 100.0%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$116,313 Vol.
$116,313 Vol.
May 6, 2026
25°C
$19,598 Vol.
100%
26°C
$4,123 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$4,121 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,225 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$2,027 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,562 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$519 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$570 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 25°C in Qingdao on May 6, backed by real-time observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport, where midday readings peaked at 25°C under clear skies, light southerly winds, and strong surface heating typical of early May diurnal cycles. Current atmospheric conditions—a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing clouds—align with numerical weather prediction models like CMA's GRAPES, forecasting no further intensification before evening cooldown. Historical May averages hover around 20–22°C, making this mild warmup unremarkable. Challenges could arise from unexpected late-afternoon solar heating or station microclimate revisions in the final CMA daily report, though probabilities remain negligible with sunset approaching.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 12:36 PM ET
Volume
$116,313End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 12:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 25°C in Qingdao on May 6, backed by real-time observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport, where midday readings peaked at 25°C under clear skies, light southerly winds, and strong surface heating typical of early May diurnal cycles. Current atmospheric conditions—a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing clouds—align with numerical weather prediction models like CMA's GRAPES, forecasting no further intensification before evening cooldown. Historical May averages hover around 20–22°C, making this mild warmup unremarkable. Challenges could arise from unexpected late-afternoon solar heating or station microclimate revisions in the final CMA daily report, though probabilities remain negligible with sunset approaching.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$116,313End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 12:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 25°C in Qingdao on May 6, backed by real-time observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport, where midday readings peaked at 25°C under clear skies, light southerly winds, and strong surface heating typical of early May diurnal cycles. Current atmospheric conditions—a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing clouds—align with numerical weather prediction models like CMA's GRAPES, forecasting no further intensification before evening cooldown. Historical May averages hover around 20–22°C, making this mild warmup unremarkable. Challenges could arise from unexpected late-afternoon solar heating or station microclimate revisions in the final CMA daily report, though probabilities remain negligible with sunset approaching.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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