Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.8% implied probability to a highest temperature of 26°C in Guangzhou on May 6, driven by official observations from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport station—the market's resolution source—recording a peak of 26°C so far amid persistent overcast skies and isolated showers. China Meteorological Administration forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS show consensus for daytime highs clustering at 26–27°C, suppressed by a trough bringing convective activity and sea breezes that limit solar heating in this humid subtropical climate, well below May climatological averages of 29°C. With the local day nearing completion, only an improbable late-afternoon clearing could push temperatures higher, though ongoing cloud cover makes this unlikely. Final station data expected within hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on May 6?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 6?
26°C 100.0%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$60,066 Vol.
$60,066 Vol.
26°C
100%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
26°C 100.0%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$60,066 Vol.
$60,066 Vol.
26°C
100%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 12:37 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.8% implied probability to a highest temperature of 26°C in Guangzhou on May 6, driven by official observations from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport station—the market's resolution source—recording a peak of 26°C so far amid persistent overcast skies and isolated showers. China Meteorological Administration forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS show consensus for daytime highs clustering at 26–27°C, suppressed by a trough bringing convective activity and sea breezes that limit solar heating in this humid subtropical climate, well below May climatological averages of 29°C. With the local day nearing completion, only an improbable late-afternoon clearing could push temperatures higher, though ongoing cloud cover makes this unlikely. Final station data expected within hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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