Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 6, anchored by real-time hourly observations from the official Shanghai Pudong International Airport station, monitored by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). Peak readings hit 25°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds that limited surface heating despite ample spring sunshine, aligning closely with pre-dawn forecasts from CMA, ECMWF, and GFS models converging on 24-26°C amid stable East Asian monsoon patterns and early May climatology averaging 24°C. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-afternoon surge from sudden clearing and wind lull boosting solar insolation, though diurnal cooling now dominates as resolution nears. CMA's evening summary will finalize data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 6?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 6?
25°C 100.0%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$257,593 Vol.
$257,593 Vol.
May 6, 2026
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 100.0%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$257,593 Vol.
$257,593 Vol.
May 6, 2026
25°C
$34,591 Vol.
100%
26°C
$51,540 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$30,377 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$35,847 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$21,178 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 6, anchored by real-time hourly observations from the official Shanghai Pudong International Airport station, monitored by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). Peak readings hit 25°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds that limited surface heating despite ample spring sunshine, aligning closely with pre-dawn forecasts from CMA, ECMWF, and GFS models converging on 24-26°C amid stable East Asian monsoon patterns and early May climatology averaging 24°C. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-afternoon surge from sudden clearing and wind lull boosting solar insolation, though diurnal cooling now dominates as resolution nears. CMA's evening summary will finalize data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Volume
$257,593End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 6, anchored by real-time hourly observations from the official Shanghai Pudong International Airport station, monitored by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). Peak readings hit 25°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds that limited surface heating despite ample spring sunshine, aligning closely with pre-dawn forecasts from CMA, ECMWF, and GFS models converging on 24-26°C amid stable East Asian monsoon patterns and early May climatology averaging 24°C. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-afternoon surge from sudden clearing and wind lull boosting solar insolation, though diurnal cooling now dominates as resolution nears. CMA's evening summary will finalize data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$257,593End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 6, anchored by real-time hourly observations from the official Shanghai Pudong International Airport station, monitored by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). Peak readings hit 25°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds that limited surface heating despite ample spring sunshine, aligning closely with pre-dawn forecasts from CMA, ECMWF, and GFS models converging on 24-26°C amid stable East Asian monsoon patterns and early May climatology averaging 24°C. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-afternoon surge from sudden clearing and wind lull boosting solar insolation, though diurnal cooling now dominates as resolution nears. CMA's evening summary will finalize data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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