Trader consensus on Polymarket closely mirrors the spread in latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles for Milan's highest temperature on May 4, with implied odds centering on 18–20°C amid an incoming cool northerly airflow that promises an 8–10°C drop from weekend highs near 23–24°C. Italian services like ilMeteo.it and AccuWeather forecast peaks of 17°C under scattered clouds or showers, but slight divergences in frontal timing and cloud cover create uncertainty—more persistent overcast favors 17°C, while afternoon clearing could push toward 20°C. This reflects a negative temperature anomaly versus May climatology (average high 22°C), driven by a deepening upper-level trough over northern Italy. Watch for 12Z model updates today, which often refine short-range details.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on May 4?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 4?
19°C 32%
18°C 29%
17°C 22%
20°C 20%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
16°C or below
3%
17°C
22%
18°C
29%
19°C
32%
20°C
20%
21°C
8%
22°C
4%
23°C
2%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
1%
19°C 32%
18°C 29%
17°C 22%
20°C 20%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
16°C or below
$72 Vol.
3%
17°C
$272 Vol.
22%
18°C
$224 Vol.
29%
19°C
$197 Vol.
32%
20°C
$216 Vol.
20%
21°C
$142 Vol.
8%
22°C
$79 Vol.
4%
23°C
$79 Vol.
2%
24°C
$337 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$174 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$75 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely mirrors the spread in latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles for Milan's highest temperature on May 4, with implied odds centering on 18–20°C amid an incoming cool northerly airflow that promises an 8–10°C drop from weekend highs near 23–24°C. Italian services like ilMeteo.it and AccuWeather forecast peaks of 17°C under scattered clouds or showers, but slight divergences in frontal timing and cloud cover create uncertainty—more persistent overcast favors 17°C, while afternoon clearing could push toward 20°C. This reflects a negative temperature anomaly versus May climatology (average high 22°C), driven by a deepening upper-level trough over northern Italy. Watch for 12Z model updates today, which often refine short-range details.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$1,837End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely mirrors the spread in latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles for Milan's highest temperature on May 4, with implied odds centering on 18–20°C amid an incoming cool northerly airflow that promises an 8–10°C drop from weekend highs near 23–24°C. Italian services like ilMeteo.it and AccuWeather forecast peaks of 17°C under scattered clouds or showers, but slight divergences in frontal timing and cloud cover create uncertainty—more persistent overcast favors 17°C, while afternoon clearing could push toward 20°C. This reflects a negative temperature anomaly versus May climatology (average high 22°C), driven by a deepening upper-level trough over northern Italy. Watch for 12Z model updates today, which often refine short-range details.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,837End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely mirrors the spread in latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles for Milan's highest temperature on May 4, with implied odds centering on 18–20°C amid an incoming cool northerly airflow that promises an 8–10°C drop from weekend highs near 23–24°C. Italian services like ilMeteo.it and AccuWeather forecast peaks of 17°C under scattered clouds or showers, but slight divergences in frontal timing and cloud cover create uncertainty—more persistent overcast favors 17°C, while afternoon clearing could push toward 20°C. This reflects a negative temperature anomaly versus May climatology (average high 22°C), driven by a deepening upper-level trough over northern Italy. Watch for 12Z model updates today, which often refine short-range details.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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