Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles for Milan's highest temperature on May 3, with ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 24–25°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Po Valley delivering southerly flow and above-normal temperatures. Updated runs over the past 24 hours show minimal spread (±1–2°C), driven by clear skies and low wind shear, but lingering model disagreements on afternoon cloud cover and urban heat island effects at Milano Linate station differentiate the leading 24°C (21.5%) and 25°C (20.5%) outcomes. Early May climatology averages 20–22°C highs, yet current anomalies from the ridge have elevated implied probabilities; watch 12z model refreshes and National Hurricane Center analogs no, wait, Italian Meteorological Service bulletins tomorrow for potential shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on May 3?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 3?
24°C 37%
23°C 31%
25°C 19%
22°C 13%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
3%
22°C
13%
23°C
31%
24°C
37%
25°C
19%
26°C
4%
27°C or higher
1%
24°C 37%
23°C 31%
25°C 19%
22°C 13%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
17°C or below
$265 Vol.
1%
18°C
$81 Vol.
1%
19°C
$176 Vol.
1%
20°C
$325 Vol.
1%
21°C
$255 Vol.
3%
22°C
$95 Vol.
13%
23°C
$463 Vol.
31%
24°C
$405 Vol.
37%
25°C
$378 Vol.
19%
26°C
$136 Vol.
4%
27°C or higher
$375 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles for Milan's highest temperature on May 3, with ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 24–25°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Po Valley delivering southerly flow and above-normal temperatures. Updated runs over the past 24 hours show minimal spread (±1–2°C), driven by clear skies and low wind shear, but lingering model disagreements on afternoon cloud cover and urban heat island effects at Milano Linate station differentiate the leading 24°C (21.5%) and 25°C (20.5%) outcomes. Early May climatology averages 20–22°C highs, yet current anomalies from the ridge have elevated implied probabilities; watch 12z model refreshes and National Hurricane Center analogs no, wait, Italian Meteorological Service bulletins tomorrow for potential shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
Volume
$2,953End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles for Milan's highest temperature on May 3, with ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 24–25°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Po Valley delivering southerly flow and above-normal temperatures. Updated runs over the past 24 hours show minimal spread (±1–2°C), driven by clear skies and low wind shear, but lingering model disagreements on afternoon cloud cover and urban heat island effects at Milano Linate station differentiate the leading 24°C (21.5%) and 25°C (20.5%) outcomes. Early May climatology averages 20–22°C highs, yet current anomalies from the ridge have elevated implied probabilities; watch 12z model refreshes and National Hurricane Center analogs no, wait, Italian Meteorological Service bulletins tomorrow for potential shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,953End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles for Milan's highest temperature on May 3, with ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 24–25°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Po Valley delivering southerly flow and above-normal temperatures. Updated runs over the past 24 hours show minimal spread (±1–2°C), driven by clear skies and low wind shear, but lingering model disagreements on afternoon cloud cover and urban heat island effects at Milano Linate station differentiate the leading 24°C (21.5%) and 25°C (20.5%) outcomes. Early May climatology averages 20–22°C highs, yet current anomalies from the ridge have elevated implied probabilities; watch 12z model refreshes and National Hurricane Center analogs no, wait, Italian Meteorological Service bulletins tomorrow for potential shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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