Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and GFS models project Milan's highest temperature on May 2 at around 24°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge bringing subsidence, clear skies, and light southerly winds, positioning this outcome as the trader consensus at 41.5% implied probability. Recent 24-hour updates show model agreement tightening after April's mild trend—with highs averaging 20-22°C—shifted upward due to warmer air advection from the Mediterranean, exceeding early May climatological norms of 21-22°C. Lower probabilities for 23°C and 25°C reflect minor ensemble spread (±1-2°C) from potential afternoon cloudiness or timing variations, while extremes below 21°C or above 26°C face barriers from stable synoptic patterns. Traders await ARPA Lombardia's daily bulletin and tomorrow's ECMWF run for resolution refinements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on May 2?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 2?
24°C 37%
23°C 34%
25°C 19%
22°C 12%
NEW
$11,614 Vol.
NEW
$11,614 Vol.
May 2, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
12%
23°C
34%
24°C
37%
25°C
19%
26°C or higher
6%
24°C 37%
23°C 34%
25°C 19%
22°C 12%
NEW
$11,614 Vol.
NEW
$11,614 Vol.
May 2, 2026
16°C or below
$1,803 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,138 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,133 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$860 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$695 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$885 Vol.
1%
22°C
$439 Vol.
12%
23°C
$1,713 Vol.
34%
24°C
$944 Vol.
37%
25°C
$840 Vol.
19%
26°C or higher
$1,192 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and GFS models project Milan's highest temperature on May 2 at around 24°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge bringing subsidence, clear skies, and light southerly winds, positioning this outcome as the trader consensus at 41.5% implied probability. Recent 24-hour updates show model agreement tightening after April's mild trend—with highs averaging 20-22°C—shifted upward due to warmer air advection from the Mediterranean, exceeding early May climatological norms of 21-22°C. Lower probabilities for 23°C and 25°C reflect minor ensemble spread (±1-2°C) from potential afternoon cloudiness or timing variations, while extremes below 21°C or above 26°C face barriers from stable synoptic patterns. Traders await ARPA Lombardia's daily bulletin and tomorrow's ECMWF run for resolution refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$11,614End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and GFS models project Milan's highest temperature on May 2 at around 24°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge bringing subsidence, clear skies, and light southerly winds, positioning this outcome as the trader consensus at 41.5% implied probability. Recent 24-hour updates show model agreement tightening after April's mild trend—with highs averaging 20-22°C—shifted upward due to warmer air advection from the Mediterranean, exceeding early May climatological norms of 21-22°C. Lower probabilities for 23°C and 25°C reflect minor ensemble spread (±1-2°C) from potential afternoon cloudiness or timing variations, while extremes below 21°C or above 26°C face barriers from stable synoptic patterns. Traders await ARPA Lombardia's daily bulletin and tomorrow's ECMWF run for resolution refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,614End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and GFS models project Milan's highest temperature on May 2 at around 24°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge bringing subsidence, clear skies, and light southerly winds, positioning this outcome as the trader consensus at 41.5% implied probability. Recent 24-hour updates show model agreement tightening after April's mild trend—with highs averaging 20-22°C—shifted upward due to warmer air advection from the Mediterranean, exceeding early May climatological norms of 21-22°C. Lower probabilities for 23°C and 25°C reflect minor ensemble spread (±1-2°C) from potential afternoon cloudiness or timing variations, while extremes below 21°C or above 26°C face barriers from stable synoptic patterns. Traders await ARPA Lombardia's daily bulletin and tomorrow's ECMWF run for resolution refinements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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