Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 26°C (40.5% implied probability) for Mexico City on May 3, driven by recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecasts signaling a sharp temperature drop starting May 1 after days of above-average heat, with cloudy skies and scattered showers likely capping peaks amid the transition to rainy season. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's highs typically hover around 26°C in early May per historical data (average 26.3°C on this date), moderated by nocturnal cooling and high-altitude subsidence, though incoming mid-level moisture from tropical waves adds uncertainty. AccuWeather models align at 79°F (26°C), but brief clearing could push toward 27°C (27.5%); watch SMN's evening update for refined guidance before resolution via official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on May 3?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 3?
26°C 41%
27°C 28%
25°C 18%
28°C 14%
NEW
$14,308 Vol.
NEW
$14,308 Vol.
May 3, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
4%
25°C
18%
26°C
41%
27°C
28%
28°C
14%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
1%
26°C 41%
27°C 28%
25°C 18%
28°C 14%
NEW
$14,308 Vol.
NEW
$14,308 Vol.
May 3, 2026
20°C or below
$5,988 Vol.
1%
21°C
$3,989 Vol.
1%
22°C
$1,520 Vol.
1%
23°C
$434 Vol.
1%
24°C
$190 Vol.
4%
25°C
$143 Vol.
18%
26°C
$315 Vol.
41%
27°C
$317 Vol.
28%
28°C
$273 Vol.
14%
29°C
$122 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$1,019 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 26°C (40.5% implied probability) for Mexico City on May 3, driven by recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecasts signaling a sharp temperature drop starting May 1 after days of above-average heat, with cloudy skies and scattered showers likely capping peaks amid the transition to rainy season. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's highs typically hover around 26°C in early May per historical data (average 26.3°C on this date), moderated by nocturnal cooling and high-altitude subsidence, though incoming mid-level moisture from tropical waves adds uncertainty. AccuWeather models align at 79°F (26°C), but brief clearing could push toward 27°C (27.5%); watch SMN's evening update for refined guidance before resolution via official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$14,308End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 26°C (40.5% implied probability) for Mexico City on May 3, driven by recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecasts signaling a sharp temperature drop starting May 1 after days of above-average heat, with cloudy skies and scattered showers likely capping peaks amid the transition to rainy season. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's highs typically hover around 26°C in early May per historical data (average 26.3°C on this date), moderated by nocturnal cooling and high-altitude subsidence, though incoming mid-level moisture from tropical waves adds uncertainty. AccuWeather models align at 79°F (26°C), but brief clearing could push toward 27°C (27.5%); watch SMN's evening update for refined guidance before resolution via official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$14,308End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 26°C (40.5% implied probability) for Mexico City on May 3, driven by recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecasts signaling a sharp temperature drop starting May 1 after days of above-average heat, with cloudy skies and scattered showers likely capping peaks amid the transition to rainy season. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's highs typically hover around 26°C in early May per historical data (average 26.3°C on this date), moderated by nocturnal cooling and high-altitude subsidence, though incoming mid-level moisture from tropical waves adds uncertainty. AccuWeather models align at 79°F (26°C), but brief clearing could push toward 27°C (27.5%); watch SMN's evening update for refined guidance before resolution via official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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