Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Chongqing's May 2 high temperature, with 20°C and 21°C each at 25.5% implied probability amid forecast model divergence. Recent China Meteorological Administration updates and international ensembles like ECMWF and GFS project peaks near 19-21°C, capped by persistent low-level clouds and scattered showers from a lingering upper trough over the Yangtze basin, following cold air surges in the past 48 hours that dropped late-April highs below seasonal norms. This contrasts early-May climatology of 25-27°C highs, as increased cloud cover reduces solar insolation. Key differentiators include rain timing—earlier clearing favors 21°C, prolonged overcast 19°C—with refreshed model runs and surface observations expected May 1 to narrow the spread before resolution via official Chongqing Jiangbei Airport data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chongqing on May 2?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on May 2?
20°C 26%
21°C 26%
19°C 18%
22°C 15%
NEW
NEW
May 2, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
3%
18°C
7%
19°C
18%
20°C
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
15%
23°C
6%
24°C
2%
25°C or higher
1%
20°C 26%
21°C 26%
19°C 18%
22°C 15%
NEW
NEW
May 2, 2026
15°C or below
$1,208 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$211 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$370 Vol.
3%
18°C
$662 Vol.
7%
19°C
$212 Vol.
18%
20°C
$51 Vol.
26%
21°C
$57 Vol.
26%
22°C
$174 Vol.
15%
23°C
$43 Vol.
6%
24°C
$420 Vol.
2%
25°C or higher
$240 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Chongqing's May 2 high temperature, with 20°C and 21°C each at 25.5% implied probability amid forecast model divergence. Recent China Meteorological Administration updates and international ensembles like ECMWF and GFS project peaks near 19-21°C, capped by persistent low-level clouds and scattered showers from a lingering upper trough over the Yangtze basin, following cold air surges in the past 48 hours that dropped late-April highs below seasonal norms. This contrasts early-May climatology of 25-27°C highs, as increased cloud cover reduces solar insolation. Key differentiators include rain timing—earlier clearing favors 21°C, prolonged overcast 19°C—with refreshed model runs and surface observations expected May 1 to narrow the spread before resolution via official Chongqing Jiangbei Airport data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$3,571End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Chongqing's May 2 high temperature, with 20°C and 21°C each at 25.5% implied probability amid forecast model divergence. Recent China Meteorological Administration updates and international ensembles like ECMWF and GFS project peaks near 19-21°C, capped by persistent low-level clouds and scattered showers from a lingering upper trough over the Yangtze basin, following cold air surges in the past 48 hours that dropped late-April highs below seasonal norms. This contrasts early-May climatology of 25-27°C highs, as increased cloud cover reduces solar insolation. Key differentiators include rain timing—earlier clearing favors 21°C, prolonged overcast 19°C—with refreshed model runs and surface observations expected May 1 to narrow the spread before resolution via official Chongqing Jiangbei Airport data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,571End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Chongqing's May 2 high temperature, with 20°C and 21°C each at 25.5% implied probability amid forecast model divergence. Recent China Meteorological Administration updates and international ensembles like ECMWF and GFS project peaks near 19-21°C, capped by persistent low-level clouds and scattered showers from a lingering upper trough over the Yangtze basin, following cold air surges in the past 48 hours that dropped late-April highs below seasonal norms. This contrasts early-May climatology of 25-27°C highs, as increased cloud cover reduces solar insolation. Key differentiators include rain timing—earlier clearing favors 21°C, prolonged overcast 19°C—with refreshed model runs and surface observations expected May 1 to narrow the spread before resolution via official Chongqing Jiangbei Airport data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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