Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Jeddah's highest temperature on May 4, with model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS projecting daytime highs of 36–38°C amid a slight warm-up from late-April's hazy 33°C observations. Coastal moderation by the Red Sea—via sea breezes limiting peak heating—clashes with potential subsidence under high-pressure ridges that could push toward 39°C or higher, explaining the 26.5% implied probability for that outcome versus clustered 35–38°C bins around 19–20%. Recent National Center for Meteorology updates note no precipitation risks but lingering dust haze reducing solar insolation, while climatological early-May averages hover near 36°C. Watch NCM's daily bulletins and fresh model runs on May 3 for shifts in sea surface temperature influences and wind patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Jeddah on May 4?
Highest temperature in Jeddah on May 4?
39°C or higher 23%
38°C 21%
36°C 18%
37°C 17%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
29°C or below
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
4%
35°C
16%
36°C
18%
37°C
17%
38°C
21%
39°C or higher
23%
39°C or higher 23%
38°C 21%
36°C 18%
37°C 17%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
29°C or below
$390 Vol.
1%
30°C
$263 Vol.
1%
31°C
$211 Vol.
1%
32°C
$20 Vol.
1%
33°C
$11 Vol.
1%
34°C
$6 Vol.
4%
35°C
$51 Vol.
16%
36°C
$0 Vol.
18%
37°C
$1 Vol.
17%
38°C
$0 Vol.
21%
39°C or higher
$4 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Jeddah's highest temperature on May 4, with model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS projecting daytime highs of 36–38°C amid a slight warm-up from late-April's hazy 33°C observations. Coastal moderation by the Red Sea—via sea breezes limiting peak heating—clashes with potential subsidence under high-pressure ridges that could push toward 39°C or higher, explaining the 26.5% implied probability for that outcome versus clustered 35–38°C bins around 19–20%. Recent National Center for Meteorology updates note no precipitation risks but lingering dust haze reducing solar insolation, while climatological early-May averages hover near 36°C. Watch NCM's daily bulletins and fresh model runs on May 3 for shifts in sea surface temperature influences and wind patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$956End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Jeddah's highest temperature on May 4, with model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS projecting daytime highs of 36–38°C amid a slight warm-up from late-April's hazy 33°C observations. Coastal moderation by the Red Sea—via sea breezes limiting peak heating—clashes with potential subsidence under high-pressure ridges that could push toward 39°C or higher, explaining the 26.5% implied probability for that outcome versus clustered 35–38°C bins around 19–20%. Recent National Center for Meteorology updates note no precipitation risks but lingering dust haze reducing solar insolation, while climatological early-May averages hover near 36°C. Watch NCM's daily bulletins and fresh model runs on May 3 for shifts in sea surface temperature influences and wind patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$956End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Jeddah's highest temperature on May 4, with model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS projecting daytime highs of 36–38°C amid a slight warm-up from late-April's hazy 33°C observations. Coastal moderation by the Red Sea—via sea breezes limiting peak heating—clashes with potential subsidence under high-pressure ridges that could push toward 39°C or higher, explaining the 26.5% implied probability for that outcome versus clustered 35–38°C bins around 19–20%. Recent National Center for Meteorology updates note no precipitation risks but lingering dust haze reducing solar insolation, while climatological early-May averages hover near 36°C. Watch NCM's daily bulletins and fresh model runs on May 3 for shifts in sea surface temperature influences and wind patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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