Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Istanbul's May 4 high temperature, with implied probabilities evenly split across 12–16°C as ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and services like AccuWeather project peaks of 13–14°C. This positioning stems from a recent cool northerly airflow—driven by an upper-level trough over the Black Sea—delivering chilly air masses, combined with persistent cloud cover and breezy northeast winds (19–29 km/h) limiting solar heating and boundary-layer mixing. Light showers earlier in the week have reinforced the cool snap, well below May's climatological average of 20°C. Key differentiators include model spread on afternoon clearing potential and exact precipitation timing, which could nudge the high up or down by 1–2°C. Watch for fresh 12Z runs from NOAA and ECMWF, plus Turkish State Meteorological Service updates, expected within 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 4?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 4?
14°C 30%
13°C 28%
15°C 24%
16°C 16%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
2%
12°C
9%
13°C
28%
14°C
30%
15°C
24%
16°C
16%
17°C
5%
18°C
3%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
1%
14°C 30%
13°C 28%
15°C 24%
16°C 16%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
10°C or below
$193 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$21 Vol.
2%
12°C
$5 Vol.
9%
13°C
$0 Vol.
28%
14°C
$0 Vol.
30%
15°C
$0 Vol.
24%
16°C
$0 Vol.
16%
17°C
$0 Vol.
5%
18°C
$5 Vol.
3%
19°C
$5 Vol.
1%
20°C or higher
$106 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Istanbul's May 4 high temperature, with implied probabilities evenly split across 12–16°C as ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and services like AccuWeather project peaks of 13–14°C. This positioning stems from a recent cool northerly airflow—driven by an upper-level trough over the Black Sea—delivering chilly air masses, combined with persistent cloud cover and breezy northeast winds (19–29 km/h) limiting solar heating and boundary-layer mixing. Light showers earlier in the week have reinforced the cool snap, well below May's climatological average of 20°C. Key differentiators include model spread on afternoon clearing potential and exact precipitation timing, which could nudge the high up or down by 1–2°C. Watch for fresh 12Z runs from NOAA and ECMWF, plus Turkish State Meteorological Service updates, expected within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$336End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Istanbul's May 4 high temperature, with implied probabilities evenly split across 12–16°C as ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and services like AccuWeather project peaks of 13–14°C. This positioning stems from a recent cool northerly airflow—driven by an upper-level trough over the Black Sea—delivering chilly air masses, combined with persistent cloud cover and breezy northeast winds (19–29 km/h) limiting solar heating and boundary-layer mixing. Light showers earlier in the week have reinforced the cool snap, well below May's climatological average of 20°C. Key differentiators include model spread on afternoon clearing potential and exact precipitation timing, which could nudge the high up or down by 1–2°C. Watch for fresh 12Z runs from NOAA and ECMWF, plus Turkish State Meteorological Service updates, expected within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$336End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Istanbul's May 4 high temperature, with implied probabilities evenly split across 12–16°C as ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and services like AccuWeather project peaks of 13–14°C. This positioning stems from a recent cool northerly airflow—driven by an upper-level trough over the Black Sea—delivering chilly air masses, combined with persistent cloud cover and breezy northeast winds (19–29 km/h) limiting solar heating and boundary-layer mixing. Light showers earlier in the week have reinforced the cool snap, well below May's climatological average of 20°C. Key differentiators include model spread on afternoon clearing potential and exact precipitation timing, which could nudge the high up or down by 1–2°C. Watch for fresh 12Z runs from NOAA and ECMWF, plus Turkish State Meteorological Service updates, expected within 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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