Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 11–13°C outcomes at roughly 20% each, reflecting the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs in this range for Istanbul on May 3 amid a persistent northerly airflow channeling cold Black Sea air into the Marmara region. This anomalous cool spell—well below the typical early May average of 20°C—stems from gusty NNE winds (20–30 km/h) and extensive low-level clouds with scattered showers limiting daytime solar heating, as confirmed by Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on cloud evolution: thicker overcast favors 10°C, while partial afternoon clearing could push toward 14°C. Watch 12z model runs today and MGM's evening bulletin for shifts before official station measurements resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 3?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 3?
11°C 32%
12°C 31%
13°C 23%
10°C 10%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
2%
9°C
3%
10°C
10%
11°C
32%
12°C
31%
13°C
23%
14°C
6%
15°C
3%
16°C
2%
17°C or higher
1%
11°C 32%
12°C 31%
13°C 23%
10°C 10%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
7°C or below
$546 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$45 Vol.
2%
9°C
$5 Vol.
3%
10°C
$30 Vol.
10%
11°C
$90 Vol.
32%
12°C
$46 Vol.
31%
13°C
$36 Vol.
23%
14°C
$37 Vol.
6%
15°C
$10 Vol.
3%
16°C
$15 Vol.
2%
17°C or higher
$163 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 11–13°C outcomes at roughly 20% each, reflecting the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs in this range for Istanbul on May 3 amid a persistent northerly airflow channeling cold Black Sea air into the Marmara region. This anomalous cool spell—well below the typical early May average of 20°C—stems from gusty NNE winds (20–30 km/h) and extensive low-level clouds with scattered showers limiting daytime solar heating, as confirmed by Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on cloud evolution: thicker overcast favors 10°C, while partial afternoon clearing could push toward 14°C. Watch 12z model runs today and MGM's evening bulletin for shifts before official station measurements resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volume
$1,014End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 11–13°C outcomes at roughly 20% each, reflecting the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs in this range for Istanbul on May 3 amid a persistent northerly airflow channeling cold Black Sea air into the Marmara region. This anomalous cool spell—well below the typical early May average of 20°C—stems from gusty NNE winds (20–30 km/h) and extensive low-level clouds with scattered showers limiting daytime solar heating, as confirmed by Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on cloud evolution: thicker overcast favors 10°C, while partial afternoon clearing could push toward 14°C. Watch 12z model runs today and MGM's evening bulletin for shifts before official station measurements resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,014End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 11–13°C outcomes at roughly 20% each, reflecting the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs in this range for Istanbul on May 3 amid a persistent northerly airflow channeling cold Black Sea air into the Marmara region. This anomalous cool spell—well below the typical early May average of 20°C—stems from gusty NNE winds (20–30 km/h) and extensive low-level clouds with scattered showers limiting daytime solar heating, as confirmed by Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on cloud evolution: thicker overcast favors 10°C, while partial afternoon clearing could push toward 14°C. Watch 12z model runs today and MGM's evening bulletin for shifts before official station measurements resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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