Skip to main content
icon for Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 2?

Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 2?

icon for Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 2?

Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 2?

Apr 30

May 1

May 2

Apr 30

May 1

May 2

12°C 40%

13°C 27%

11°C 20%

14°C 6.3%

Polymarket
NEW

12°C 40%

13°C 27%

11°C 20%

14°C 6.3%

Polymarket
NEW

8°C or below

$3,437 Vol.

<1%

9°C

$311 Vol.

4%

10°C

$212 Vol.

6%

11°C

$42 Vol.

20%

12°C

$270 Vol.

40%

13°C

$68 Vol.

27%

14°C

$88 Vol.

6%

15°C

$233 Vol.

2%

16°C

$87 Vol.

1%

17°C

$81 Vol.

<1%

18°C or higher

$85 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 39% implied probability for a 12°C high in Istanbul on May 2, reflecting convergence in the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing daytime maxima near 12°C amid northerly winds advecting cool continental air from the Balkans. A persistent blocking high-pressure system over eastern Europe suppresses typical early May warmth (historical norms around 20°C), with partly cloudy skies, gusts to 25 km/h, and possible morning showers per Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) updates and AccuWeather guidance. Recent April 30 observations hit 15°C, but model runs (00Z/12Z) reinforce the cool anomaly 7–8°C below average. Short-range uncertainty from cloud cover and frontal timing could shift highs by 1–2°C; watch NOAA Istanbul Airport (LTFM) data for resolution and impending 12Z model refresh.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,915
End Date
May 2, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 39% implied probability for a 12°C high in Istanbul on May 2, reflecting convergence in the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing daytime maxima near 12°C amid northerly winds advecting cool continental air from the Balkans. A persistent blocking high-pressure system over eastern Europe suppresses typical early May warmth (historical norms around 20°C), with partly cloudy skies, gusts to 25 km/h, and possible morning showers per Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) updates and AccuWeather guidance. Recent April 30 observations hit 15°C, but model runs (00Z/12Z) reinforce the cool anomaly 7–8°C below average. Short-range uncertainty from cloud cover and frontal timing could shift highs by 1–2°C; watch NOAA Istanbul Airport (LTFM) data for resolution and impending 12Z model refresh.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,915
End Date
May 2, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 2?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12°C" at 40%, followed by "13°C" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 2?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 2?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 2?" is "12°C" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "13°C" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 2?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.