Trader consensus assigns a 95% implied probability to a highest temperature of 33°C in Chengdu on May 21, reflecting strong agreement among ensemble forecast models that daytime maxima will peak under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions without significant warm-air advection. Recent surface observations and guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration show typical late-spring patterns, with temperatures aligning closely to the 30–33°C historical average for mid-May and limited convective activity expected to moderate heat buildup. This positioning draws additional support from consistent model runs projecting minimal deviation in wind and humidity fields. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome to 34°C or higher include faster-than-anticipated clearing of morning cloud cover or localized urban heat-island intensification, though current observational trends indicate these remain low-probability adjustments.