Ongoing military operations, including recent Russian drone strikes and Ukrainian counterstrikes on energy infrastructure, continue without a ceasefire as of mid-June 2026. Trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in the year produced only prisoner exchanges and brief holiday pauses, but stalled over core disputes including territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality provisions. Formal negotiations have not resumed following U.S.-Israeli actions against Iran that diverted diplomatic focus, and Russian officials have described major compromises as premature. Ukraine maintains demands for credible long-term protections and restoration of internationally recognized borders, while Russia holds to maximalist positions. These persistent gaps, absent any recent breakthrough or scheduled summit likely to close them before year-end, underpin trader expectations that a signed agreement will not occur before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,232,484 Vol.
$2,232,484 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$2,232,484 Vol.
$2,232,484 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing military operations, including recent Russian drone strikes and Ukrainian counterstrikes on energy infrastructure, continue without a ceasefire as of mid-June 2026. Trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in the year produced only prisoner exchanges and brief holiday pauses, but stalled over core disputes including territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality provisions. Formal negotiations have not resumed following U.S.-Israeli actions against Iran that diverted diplomatic focus, and Russian officials have described major compromises as premature. Ukraine maintains demands for credible long-term protections and restoration of internationally recognized borders, while Russia holds to maximalist positions. These persistent gaps, absent any recent breakthrough or scheduled summit likely to close them before year-end, underpin trader expectations that a signed agreement will not occur before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,232,484End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing military operations, including recent Russian drone strikes and Ukrainian counterstrikes on energy infrastructure, continue without a ceasefire as of mid-June 2026. Trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in the year produced only prisoner exchanges and brief holiday pauses, but stalled over core disputes including territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality provisions. Formal negotiations have not resumed following U.S.-Israeli actions against Iran that diverted diplomatic focus, and Russian officials have described major compromises as premature. Ukraine maintains demands for credible long-term protections and restoration of internationally recognized borders, while Russia holds to maximalist positions. These persistent gaps, absent any recent breakthrough or scheduled summit likely to close them before year-end, underpin trader expectations that a signed agreement will not occur before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,232,484End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military operations, including recent Russian drone strikes and Ukrainian counterstrikes on energy infrastructure, continue without a ceasefire as of mid-June 2026. Trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in the year produced only prisoner exchanges and brief holiday pauses, but stalled over core disputes including territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality provisions. Formal negotiations have not resumed following U.S.-Israeli actions against Iran that diverted diplomatic focus, and Russian officials have described major compromises as premature. Ukraine maintains demands for credible long-term protections and restoration of internationally recognized borders, while Russia holds to maximalist positions. These persistent gaps, absent any recent breakthrough or scheduled summit likely to close them before year-end, underpin trader expectations that a signed agreement will not occur before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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