Trader consensus prices "No" at 73.5% for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027, reflecting stalled US-brokered negotiations despite early April optimism from Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov on converging positions. Recent diplomatic signals, including President Zelensky's April 22 offer for talks in neutral venues like Azerbaijan or Turkey—rejected by the Kremlin—and a Trump-Putin call urging an end to hostilities, have yielded no breakthroughs amid maximalist demands over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and NATO aspirations. German Chancellor Merz's suggestion of Ukrainian land cessions for EU progress highlights persistent barriers, while ongoing airstrikes and combat underscore de-escalation failures ahead of Russia's May Victory Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$237,890 Vol.
$237,890 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$237,890 Vol.
$237,890 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 73.5% for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027, reflecting stalled US-brokered negotiations despite early April optimism from Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov on converging positions. Recent diplomatic signals, including President Zelensky's April 22 offer for talks in neutral venues like Azerbaijan or Turkey—rejected by the Kremlin—and a Trump-Putin call urging an end to hostilities, have yielded no breakthroughs amid maximalist demands over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and NATO aspirations. German Chancellor Merz's suggestion of Ukrainian land cessions for EU progress highlights persistent barriers, while ongoing airstrikes and combat underscore de-escalation failures ahead of Russia's May Victory Day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$237,890End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 73.5% for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027, reflecting stalled US-brokered negotiations despite early April optimism from Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov on converging positions. Recent diplomatic signals, including President Zelensky's April 22 offer for talks in neutral venues like Azerbaijan or Turkey—rejected by the Kremlin—and a Trump-Putin call urging an end to hostilities, have yielded no breakthroughs amid maximalist demands over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and NATO aspirations. German Chancellor Merz's suggestion of Ukrainian land cessions for EU progress highlights persistent barriers, while ongoing airstrikes and combat underscore de-escalation failures ahead of Russia's May Victory Day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$237,890End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 73.5% for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027, reflecting stalled US-brokered negotiations despite early April optimism from Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov on converging positions. Recent diplomatic signals, including President Zelensky's April 22 offer for talks in neutral venues like Azerbaijan or Turkey—rejected by the Kremlin—and a Trump-Putin call urging an end to hostilities, have yielded no breakthroughs amid maximalist demands over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and NATO aspirations. German Chancellor Merz's suggestion of Ukrainian land cessions for EU progress highlights persistent barriers, while ongoing airstrikes and combat underscore de-escalation failures ahead of Russia's May Victory Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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