Civil Contract's commanding 94.5% implied probability as the leading party in Armenia's June 7, 2026, parliamentary election stems from its persistent dominance in recent polls, including a Gallup International survey released April 30 showing 26.7% support—well ahead of fragmented rivals like the Armenia Alliance at 3.5%—with 30% undecided voters historically breaking toward incumbents. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's party benefits from opposition disunity, as evidenced by the Central Election Commission's rejection of documents from eight parties yesterday, including Strong Armenia and Armenian National Congress. Government actions against alleged Russian cash smuggling at airports and diaspora interference claims further solidify trader confidence in a proportional representation system favoring the ruling party's plurality. Challenges would require rapid opposition consolidation, a major scandal, or validated foreign meddling, though structural barriers like the 4% threshold for parties remain high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCivil Contract 95%
Armenia Alliance 3.5%
Armenian National Congress <1%
Prosperous Armenia <1%
$113,494 Vol.
$113,494 Vol.
Jun 7, 2026
Civil Contract
95%
Armenia Alliance
4%
Armenian National Congress
<1%
Prosperous Armenia
<1%
Hanrapetutyun Party
<1%
Heritage
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
<1%
Bright Armenia
<1%
I Have Honor Alliance
<1%
Civil Contract 95%
Armenia Alliance 3.5%
Armenian National Congress <1%
Prosperous Armenia <1%
$113,494 Vol.
$113,494 Vol.
Jun 7, 2026
Civil Contract
$44,956 Vol.
95%
Armenia Alliance
$50,991 Vol.
4%
Armenian National Congress
$2,663 Vol.
<1%
Prosperous Armenia
$2,422 Vol.
<1%
Hanrapetutyun Party
$2,196 Vol.
<1%
Heritage
$2,576 Vol.
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
$2,669 Vol.
<1%
Bright Armenia
$2,960 Vol.
<1%
I Have Honor Alliance
$2,061 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract's commanding 94.5% implied probability as the leading party in Armenia's June 7, 2026, parliamentary election stems from its persistent dominance in recent polls, including a Gallup International survey released April 30 showing 26.7% support—well ahead of fragmented rivals like the Armenia Alliance at 3.5%—with 30% undecided voters historically breaking toward incumbents. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's party benefits from opposition disunity, as evidenced by the Central Election Commission's rejection of documents from eight parties yesterday, including Strong Armenia and Armenian National Congress. Government actions against alleged Russian cash smuggling at airports and diaspora interference claims further solidify trader confidence in a proportional representation system favoring the ruling party's plurality. Challenges would require rapid opposition consolidation, a major scandal, or validated foreign meddling, though structural barriers like the 4% threshold for parties remain high.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Market Opened: Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ET
Volume
$113,494End Date
Jun 7, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract's commanding 94.5% implied probability as the leading party in Armenia's June 7, 2026, parliamentary election stems from its persistent dominance in recent polls, including a Gallup International survey released April 30 showing 26.7% support—well ahead of fragmented rivals like the Armenia Alliance at 3.5%—with 30% undecided voters historically breaking toward incumbents. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's party benefits from opposition disunity, as evidenced by the Central Election Commission's rejection of documents from eight parties yesterday, including Strong Armenia and Armenian National Congress. Government actions against alleged Russian cash smuggling at airports and diaspora interference claims further solidify trader confidence in a proportional representation system favoring the ruling party's plurality. Challenges would require rapid opposition consolidation, a major scandal, or validated foreign meddling, though structural barriers like the 4% threshold for parties remain high.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Volume
$113,494End Date
Jun 7, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Civil Contract's commanding 94.5% implied probability as the leading party in Armenia's June 7, 2026, parliamentary election stems from its persistent dominance in recent polls, including a Gallup International survey released April 30 showing 26.7% support—well ahead of fragmented rivals like the Armenia Alliance at 3.5%—with 30% undecided voters historically breaking toward incumbents. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's party benefits from opposition disunity, as evidenced by the Central Election Commission's rejection of documents from eight parties yesterday, including Strong Armenia and Armenian National Congress. Government actions against alleged Russian cash smuggling at airports and diaspora interference claims further solidify trader confidence in a proportional representation system favoring the ruling party's plurality. Challenges would require rapid opposition consolidation, a major scandal, or validated foreign meddling, though structural barriers like the 4% threshold for parties remain high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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