Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels for April 2026 (63% implied probability), driven by preliminary reanalysis data indicating sustained warmth following March's fourth-warmest ranking at 1.48ºC (Copernicus ERA5). Key factors include the second-warmest April sea surface temperatures on record at 21.08ºC, reflecting lingering ocean heat content from prior El Niño despite current ENSO-neutral conditions (80% NOAA probability through June). This positions the outcome amid ongoing anthropogenic forcing and minimal cooling signals, with lower bins like 1.10–1.14ºC (26.5%) accounting for potential late-month moderation. Official bulletins from Copernicus, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth, expected early May, will incorporate final observations and resolve uncertainties in real-time monitoring.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 63%
1.10–1.14ºC 27%
1.20–1.24ºC 10%
1.25–1.29ºC 2.6%
$291,306 Vol.
$291,306 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
27%
1.15–1.19ºC
63%
1.20–1.24ºC
10%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC 63%
1.10–1.14ºC 27%
1.20–1.24ºC 10%
1.25–1.29ºC 2.6%
$291,306 Vol.
$291,306 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$52,382 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$56,356 Vol.
27%
1.15–1.19ºC
$43,621 Vol.
63%
1.20–1.24ºC
$52,921 Vol.
10%
1.25–1.29ºC
$50,330 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$35,696 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels for April 2026 (63% implied probability), driven by preliminary reanalysis data indicating sustained warmth following March's fourth-warmest ranking at 1.48ºC (Copernicus ERA5). Key factors include the second-warmest April sea surface temperatures on record at 21.08ºC, reflecting lingering ocean heat content from prior El Niño despite current ENSO-neutral conditions (80% NOAA probability through June). This positions the outcome amid ongoing anthropogenic forcing and minimal cooling signals, with lower bins like 1.10–1.14ºC (26.5%) accounting for potential late-month moderation. Official bulletins from Copernicus, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth, expected early May, will incorporate final observations and resolve uncertainties in real-time monitoring.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$291,306End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels for April 2026 (63% implied probability), driven by preliminary reanalysis data indicating sustained warmth following March's fourth-warmest ranking at 1.48ºC (Copernicus ERA5). Key factors include the second-warmest April sea surface temperatures on record at 21.08ºC, reflecting lingering ocean heat content from prior El Niño despite current ENSO-neutral conditions (80% NOAA probability through June). This positions the outcome amid ongoing anthropogenic forcing and minimal cooling signals, with lower bins like 1.10–1.14ºC (26.5%) accounting for potential late-month moderation. Official bulletins from Copernicus, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth, expected early May, will incorporate final observations and resolve uncertainties in real-time monitoring.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$291,306End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels for April 2026 (63% implied probability), driven by preliminary reanalysis data indicating sustained warmth following March's fourth-warmest ranking at 1.48ºC (Copernicus ERA5). Key factors include the second-warmest April sea surface temperatures on record at 21.08ºC, reflecting lingering ocean heat content from prior El Niño despite current ENSO-neutral conditions (80% NOAA probability through June). This positions the outcome amid ongoing anthropogenic forcing and minimal cooling signals, with lower bins like 1.10–1.14ºC (26.5%) accounting for potential late-month moderation. Official bulletins from Copernicus, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth, expected early May, will incorporate final observations and resolve uncertainties in real-time monitoring.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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