Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data places April 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.15–1.19°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving trader consensus with 50.5% implied probability on that bin, closely trailed by 1.10–1.14°C at 38.5%. This positioning reflects second-warmest April SSTs on record at 21.08°C (per Copernicus Marine Service, trailing only April 2024), fueled by persistently elevated equatorial Pacific temperatures amid ENSO-neutral conditions through April–June (80% NOAA probability). Absent La Niña cooling or volcanic influences, greenhouse gas forcing sustains high baselines, though final Copernicus bulletin expected early May could refine measurements amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties. Historical analogs from recent record Aprils underscore the tight clustering around 1.1–1.2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 52%
1.10–1.14ºC 38%
1.20–1.24ºC 9%
1.25–1.29ºC 1.3%
$266,662 Vol.
$266,662 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
38%
1.15–1.19ºC
52%
1.20–1.24ºC
9%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC 52%
1.10–1.14ºC 38%
1.20–1.24ºC 9%
1.25–1.29ºC 1.3%
$266,662 Vol.
$266,662 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$49,107 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$51,760 Vol.
38%
1.15–1.19ºC
$39,720 Vol.
52%
1.20–1.24ºC
$46,583 Vol.
9%
1.25–1.29ºC
$46,636 Vol.
1%
>1.29ºC
$32,857 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data places April 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.15–1.19°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving trader consensus with 50.5% implied probability on that bin, closely trailed by 1.10–1.14°C at 38.5%. This positioning reflects second-warmest April SSTs on record at 21.08°C (per Copernicus Marine Service, trailing only April 2024), fueled by persistently elevated equatorial Pacific temperatures amid ENSO-neutral conditions through April–June (80% NOAA probability). Absent La Niña cooling or volcanic influences, greenhouse gas forcing sustains high baselines, though final Copernicus bulletin expected early May could refine measurements amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties. Historical analogs from recent record Aprils underscore the tight clustering around 1.1–1.2°C.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$266,662End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data places April 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.15–1.19°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving trader consensus with 50.5% implied probability on that bin, closely trailed by 1.10–1.14°C at 38.5%. This positioning reflects second-warmest April SSTs on record at 21.08°C (per Copernicus Marine Service, trailing only April 2024), fueled by persistently elevated equatorial Pacific temperatures amid ENSO-neutral conditions through April–June (80% NOAA probability). Absent La Niña cooling or volcanic influences, greenhouse gas forcing sustains high baselines, though final Copernicus bulletin expected early May could refine measurements amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties. Historical analogs from recent record Aprils underscore the tight clustering around 1.1–1.2°C.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$266,662End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data places April 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.15–1.19°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving trader consensus with 50.5% implied probability on that bin, closely trailed by 1.10–1.14°C at 38.5%. This positioning reflects second-warmest April SSTs on record at 21.08°C (per Copernicus Marine Service, trailing only April 2024), fueled by persistently elevated equatorial Pacific temperatures amid ENSO-neutral conditions through April–June (80% NOAA probability). Absent La Niña cooling or volcanic influences, greenhouse gas forcing sustains high baselines, though final Copernicus bulletin expected early May could refine measurements amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties. Historical analogs from recent record Aprils underscore the tight clustering around 1.1–1.2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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