Recent global model forecasts, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles aggregated in statistical projections, point to a 34°C high in Lagos on May 2, fueling trader sentiment with 34% implied probability for that outcome amid NiMet's 2026 seasonal outlook of above-normal temperatures during wet season onset. Late April saw peaks up to 35°C at Murtala Muhammed Airport—the likely resolution station—under reduced cloud cover, but early May climatology averages 31°C with frequent sea breezes from the Gulf of Guinea moderating peaks. Key variables include convective shower timing, potentially capping highs at 32-33°C via evaporative cooling and shading, versus sustained solar insolation favoring 35°C+ amid urban heat island effects. High uncertainty reflects model divergence on precipitation (60-65% chance), with NiMet daily bulletins and fresh ensembles due within 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lagos on May 2?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 2?
34°C 36%
33°C 23%
32°C 13%
31°C 12%
NEW
NEW
May 2, 2026
27°C or below
3%
28°C
2%
29°C
3%
30°C
6%
31°C
12%
32°C
13%
33°C
23%
34°C
36%
35°C
12%
36°C
6%
37°C or higher
5%
34°C 36%
33°C 23%
32°C 13%
31°C 12%
NEW
NEW
May 2, 2026
27°C or below
$2,381 Vol.
3%
28°C
$1,049 Vol.
2%
29°C
$41 Vol.
3%
30°C
$20 Vol.
6%
31°C
$0 Vol.
12%
32°C
$14 Vol.
13%
33°C
$18 Vol.
23%
34°C
$59 Vol.
36%
35°C
$15 Vol.
12%
36°C
$0 Vol.
6%
37°C or higher
$591 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent global model forecasts, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles aggregated in statistical projections, point to a 34°C high in Lagos on May 2, fueling trader sentiment with 34% implied probability for that outcome amid NiMet's 2026 seasonal outlook of above-normal temperatures during wet season onset. Late April saw peaks up to 35°C at Murtala Muhammed Airport—the likely resolution station—under reduced cloud cover, but early May climatology averages 31°C with frequent sea breezes from the Gulf of Guinea moderating peaks. Key variables include convective shower timing, potentially capping highs at 32-33°C via evaporative cooling and shading, versus sustained solar insolation favoring 35°C+ amid urban heat island effects. High uncertainty reflects model divergence on precipitation (60-65% chance), with NiMet daily bulletins and fresh ensembles due within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:43 AM ET
Volume
$4,163End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:43 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent global model forecasts, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles aggregated in statistical projections, point to a 34°C high in Lagos on May 2, fueling trader sentiment with 34% implied probability for that outcome amid NiMet's 2026 seasonal outlook of above-normal temperatures during wet season onset. Late April saw peaks up to 35°C at Murtala Muhammed Airport—the likely resolution station—under reduced cloud cover, but early May climatology averages 31°C with frequent sea breezes from the Gulf of Guinea moderating peaks. Key variables include convective shower timing, potentially capping highs at 32-33°C via evaporative cooling and shading, versus sustained solar insolation favoring 35°C+ amid urban heat island effects. High uncertainty reflects model divergence on precipitation (60-65% chance), with NiMet daily bulletins and fresh ensembles due within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,163End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:43 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global model forecasts, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles aggregated in statistical projections, point to a 34°C high in Lagos on May 2, fueling trader sentiment with 34% implied probability for that outcome amid NiMet's 2026 seasonal outlook of above-normal temperatures during wet season onset. Late April saw peaks up to 35°C at Murtala Muhammed Airport—the likely resolution station—under reduced cloud cover, but early May climatology averages 31°C with frequent sea breezes from the Gulf of Guinea moderating peaks. Key variables include convective shower timing, potentially capping highs at 32-33°C via evaporative cooling and shading, versus sustained solar insolation favoring 35°C+ amid urban heat island effects. High uncertainty reflects model divergence on precipitation (60-65% chance), with NiMet daily bulletins and fresh ensembles due within 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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