Trader consensus prices zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake at 50% implied odds each for May 4–10, mirroring the USGS historical baseline of roughly 0.7–1.0 such events weekly worldwide under the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. Recent USGS data shows normal activity, with two M7.4 events off Japan on April 1 and 20 but no ongoing aftershock swarms, fault-line buildups, or seismic upticks in high-risk zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire to favor multiples. Inherent Poisson-distributed uncertainty in global tectonics differentiates outcomes, as short-term forecasting remains impossible; resolution hinges on USGS moment magnitude catalog. Watch daily real-time feeds for shifts from emerging clusters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 4 - May 10?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 4 - May 10?
1 51%
0 50%
2 34%
3 34%
NEW
NEW
May 10, 2026
0
50%
1
51%
2
34%
3
34%
4
33%
5
2%
>5
2%
1 51%
0 50%
2 34%
3 34%
NEW
NEW
May 10, 2026
0
$0 Vol.
50%
1
$0 Vol.
51%
2
$0 Vol.
34%
3
$0 Vol.
34%
4
$14 Vol.
33%
5
$0 Vol.
2%
>5
$14 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake at 50% implied odds each for May 4–10, mirroring the USGS historical baseline of roughly 0.7–1.0 such events weekly worldwide under the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. Recent USGS data shows normal activity, with two M7.4 events off Japan on April 1 and 20 but no ongoing aftershock swarms, fault-line buildups, or seismic upticks in high-risk zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire to favor multiples. Inherent Poisson-distributed uncertainty in global tectonics differentiates outcomes, as short-term forecasting remains impossible; resolution hinges on USGS moment magnitude catalog. Watch daily real-time feeds for shifts from emerging clusters.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 11:27 AM ET
Volume
$27End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 11:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake at 50% implied odds each for May 4–10, mirroring the USGS historical baseline of roughly 0.7–1.0 such events weekly worldwide under the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. Recent USGS data shows normal activity, with two M7.4 events off Japan on April 1 and 20 but no ongoing aftershock swarms, fault-line buildups, or seismic upticks in high-risk zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire to favor multiples. Inherent Poisson-distributed uncertainty in global tectonics differentiates outcomes, as short-term forecasting remains impossible; resolution hinges on USGS moment magnitude catalog. Watch daily real-time feeds for shifts from emerging clusters.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$27End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 11:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake at 50% implied odds each for May 4–10, mirroring the USGS historical baseline of roughly 0.7–1.0 such events weekly worldwide under the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. Recent USGS data shows normal activity, with two M7.4 events off Japan on April 1 and 20 but no ongoing aftershock swarms, fault-line buildups, or seismic upticks in high-risk zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire to favor multiples. Inherent Poisson-distributed uncertainty in global tectonics differentiates outcomes, as short-term forecasting remains impossible; resolution hinges on USGS moment magnitude catalog. Watch daily real-time feeds for shifts from emerging clusters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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